A female shop vendor on Silom Road shouts, ‘Thaksin, get out!’ at the premier during the April 2 election campaign in this file photograph.

Thaksin Shinawatra is not the first prime minister in Thai political history whose love-hate relationship with the public led to social conflict.

Statesman Prem Tinsulanonda, who is now a model for a desirable leader among many elite Thais, once had a similarly bitter experience.

On the afternoon of November 11, 1985, the then prime minister walked away from the podium after finishing an opening ceremony at the National University Games at Hua Mak Stadium, giving smiles to all people as usual. Suddenly, a punch from Ramkhamhaeng University student Kwanchai Warasutra broke his nose.

Kwanchai was nabbed and authorities later said he was mentally ill. None of his close associates and friends believed this statement, saying he was one of the anti-Prem student activists who wanted to overthrow the military-backed Prem regime.

Although another theory said the attack was a plot to divert attention from a corruption scandal in Ramkhamhaeng, Kwanchai's punch was put into the context of political conflict between Prem and his rivals in the military, political and civic groups.

The student attack was a jump-start for the anti-Prem movement led by students and intellectuals. By 1986, the Student Federation of Thailand (SFT), the national umbrella organisation of student unions, had organised a series of anti-Prem demonstrations. Its rallies escalated for years until Prem stepped down in 1988.

The movement wanted to bring him down and to install an elected prime minister after Prem had been at the helm since 1980 without the people's mandate.

Like Thaksin, as his regime began to decline, Prem's government officials set up a lot of supportive movements to build public opinion that he was the sole person in the Kingdom who was qualified to hold the premiership.

Opinion polls conducted by former student activist-cum-academic Thirayuth Boonmee that indicated Prem's declining popularity were always countered and discredited by National Statistics Office chief Niyom Purakham. Thirayuth's polls showed that Prem was no longer fit to lead Thailand.

The then Interior Ministry permanent secretary Pisarn Moonlasartsathorn acted as Prem's cheerleader. He was dubbed by the media as Palad Hi (Hitachi secretary) for his job of greeting Prem everywhere he went through the nation. He could do so as quickly as turning on an Hitachi television, where Prem's image instantly appeared. The famous slogan to cheer Prem was that "the sky belongs to birds, the water belongs to fish, the premier position is preserved only for Prem".

Thaksin's supporters could not create such a catchy slogan but the current premier has a lot of Palad Hi in his pocket. PM's Office Minister Newin Chidchob, Environment Minister Yongyuth Tiyapairat and Thai Rak Thai Party spokesman Sitha Thiwaree can all shape public opinion for him.

Unlike now, the anti-Prem frontrunner SFT did not organise guerrilla-style protests to chase or humiliate Prem in public and so had no chance to clash with his supporters. Student rallies at Sanam Luang were closely monitored by authorities but none of Prem's supporters turned up to harass protesters.

Unlike the anti-Thaksin movement, the fight to topple Prem two decades ago was not in the media spotlight. The media did not make Kwanchai a hero and his punch did not inspire or encourage any anti-Prem activist to use violence in any form.

In contrast, some media today have treated anti-Thaksin protesters as heroes since two women shouted and chased Thaksin in Bangkok's Silom area in March, thus inspiring many people to humiliate the premier in public.

Prem decided to step down in 1988 after Chatichai Choonhavan, whose Chart Thai Party won the July election with 87 seats, formed a coalition government with four other parties without Prem, ending an eight-year regime backed by the military and bureaucrats.

While street protests might not have been a major factor for Prem, his decision not to play a political game by taking any power, although he had the right to do so, led to him being given an honour. His Majesty the King picked him as a member of the Privy Council six days after his decision to step down. He was the second leader in Thai history to earn the title of "Statesman" following Senior Statesman Pridi Banomyong.

Street rallies these days are harsher than two decades ago and there is likely to be mounting pressure and violence.

The divide in society is now deepening. Thaksin's decision could shape the direction of the Kingdom and his own fate. Will he go the way of statesman or tyrant?

Supalak Ganjanakhundee

The Nation