Thaksin Shinawatra presides over the Digital TK Park opening ceremony yesterday as scuffles raged outside the complex.

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is keeping political observers and even his own party members guessing about whether he will assume the premiership after the coming election. This is making his opponents even more furious.

He might eventually decide to take the prime minister's office for a third term, no matter how serious the sentiment against him.

Although leading Thai Rak Thai members believe that Thaksin will bow out of national politics after the October 15 poll to ease mounting tensions over his prime ministership, Thaksin himself has refused to comment, saying only that he will make a decision after the election.

With political tension escalating again following a truce during the 60th anniversary celebrations for His Majesty the King's accession to the throne, Thaksin is under pressure to step down as the only way to bring peace to a divided country.

Why is he keeping everyone waiting until the election results come out? Even if Thaksin announced today he would not become prime minister even his party won the election, Thai Rak Thai would be unlikely to avoid a big blow to its popularity in the 400 constituencies nationwide, and particularly its party-list votes.

The Thai Rak Thai won about 19 million votes in the February 2005 poll and 16 million votes in the April 2 poll this year later ruled illegal by the Constitution Court. Most who voted for the party did so because they love Thaksin and want him to be PM.

However, even with Thaksin still in the picture, Thai Rak Thai's party-list candidates have reportedly become very uncertain of late about whether they would get elected if they are ranked below the 50th spot on the list.

This is stark contrast to the two previous national elections, when even a candidate ranked 80th on the party-list could feel secure about getting a seat as some of the higher-ranked candidates would become Cabinet members, making their seats available to candidates ranked below them.

For constituency candidates, however, Thaksin bowing out would not appear to have a big impact because voters usually have more loyalty to their local representative than to a national figure.

Moreover, an election result in which Thai Rak Thai wins by a landslide with at least 300 of the 500 seats would strengthen the case for Thaksin to assume the premiership again.

Thaksin may feel he made a big error by declaring after the April 2 poll that he would bow out of national politics to ease growing tensions. Once the Constitution Court ruled the April 2 poll illegal, his opponents changed strategy and started attempting to seize his family's assets and get him out of Thai politics forever.

Another factor that must have weighed on Thaksin is the internal rift in Thai Rak Thai. He can no longer trust leading party members who backed him strongly during the political crisis earlier this year.

Some are reported to support Somkid Jatusripitak, who is deputy PM and commerce minister, to replace Thaksin as prime minister, if Thai Rak Thai forms the new government. Somkid is said to be keen on the post but has so far refused to state his position, asserting instead that he would never abandon his boss.

Meanwhile, Thaksin cannot trust other party faction leaders, who have attempted to nominate their men or even themselves to take control of the new government if Thaksin bows out.

Even if the calls for his resignation reach a point where he has to quit after the election, Thaksin has an option. He can ask his old ally, Chat Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa, to succeed him temporarily. Bowing out earlier may appear to be a weak option for Thaksin, and that may be why he is clinging to power despite the serious national divide it is creating.

Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation