One outgoing senator, who asked not to be named, said: "Five years ago, Thaksin's popularity was as wide as an eight-lane superhighway. No one could beat him. However, his karma is approaching an end because of his improper deeds since the start of this year.

 

Analysis

"Now, his popularity is dwindling rapidly, and Thaksin has probably entered into a dead-end with no way out, due to his own miscalculations."

The senator, one of 70 to 80 non-partisan members of the Upper House, said Thaksin was now being pressured on several fronts to quit politics.

"First, Pinij Charusombat, the caretaker public health minister and leader of a Thai Rak Thai Party faction, has publicly announced that he and caretaker deputy premier and Commerce Minister Somkid Jatusripitak will not accept posts in a new Thaksin Cabinet.

"Second, Thaksin is anxiously awaiting a Criminal Court ruling on whether a perjury case against him while he was still the chief executive of a cable-TV firm will be accepted. The final ruling is due on October 16.

"Third, the Constitution Court will soon deliver a verdict on whether the Thai Rak Thai Party will be dissolved due to its alleged hiring of small parties to field candidates in the April 2 election," the senator said.

In addition, the next election is unlikely to be held on October 15 as scheduled because the Senate will be unable to select five new election commissioners by next Thursday's deadline.

The senator said September 5 was probably the earliest date by which all five new members of the Election Commission would be selected.

"All caretaker senators have agreed that we need a total of 20 days to examine the background and qualifications of the 10 nominees for final selection of the EC members.

"As a result, we won't have these new commissioners by the August 24 deadline and the decree for the next poll to take place on October 15 will probably be null and void. A new election date will have to be scheduled later.

"In this scenario, Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai Party will have a reduced advantage at the polls. The later the polls are held, the more difficult they will find it to win as many votes as before," he said.

Meanwhile, a Thai Rak Thai source said it was likely that Somkid would be Thaksin's successor, if the latter eventually decides not to take up the premiership.

"Politicking inside the TRT has intensified," the source said. "A large faction of 120 former MPs together with a smaller faction of 20 MPs have backed Somkid as the next premier in the event that Thaksin is forced to step aside.

"These two factions want Thaksin to announce an early decision that he will not accept the premiership, because they believe Thaksin can no longer govern, even though Thai Rak Thai might win the next poll.

"In such an event, Somkid is probably the best choice as Thaksin's successor because other choices may be seen as Thaksin's puppets," the Thai Rak Thai source said.

At this juncture, it remains difficult to read Thaksin's mind, because his final decision on whether or not he will take up the premiership will be based on the number of Thai Rak Thai candidates that win in the next election.

Nophakhun Limsamarnphun,

Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation