The scale of job losses will be reported as part of Thailand's bid to persuade the US to retain the GSP benefits for Thai exporters, said Board of Trade deputy secretary Pornsilp Patcharintanakul.

The figure was calculated yesterday at an urgent meeting between the federation and the chamber in response to plans in Washington to review GSP privileges to 13 countries, including Thailand.

Pornsilp said if GSP is withdrawn jobs are likely to be lost in those export sectors currently enjoying the system's benefits. The jewellery, television, and automotive spare parts industries will no longer hold a competitive edge over exports from China and Vietnam.

The federation and the Board of Trade plan to compile data relating to the effects of a GSP cut and send it to the Commerce Ministry by August 22. It will detail Thai exporters' disagreement with US plans to withdraw the trade benefit.

Washington is reviewing GSP benefits to 13 countries, including Thailand, following warnings from congressional leaders that they will oppose renewal of the programme because its benefits are unfairly distributed to a small group of countries.

The Office of the US Trade Representative has urged both the Thai government and the private sector to submit information for its consideration before September 5. A final decision on the GSP benefits is expected around the end of the year.

FTI vice chairman Paiboon Phonsuwanna said that if Washington decided to withdraw trade benefits, Thais may retaliate with a social boycott, such as banning US products.

"We will lose a huge amount of foreign exchange from the loss of GSP privileges," he said.

Pornsilp of the Board of Trade said the GSP benefits should not be withdrawn because a large number of people will lose their jobs. The actual unemployment effect could be worse than 100,000 lost jobs because the impact may spill over into other industries.

He said the US should not withdraw the trade benefit to Thailand as long as its gross domestic product per capita remains less than US$10,000 (Bt375,000). The World Bank says the Kingdom's GDP per capita is $8,600.

According to the Commerce Ministry, 21.9 per cent of the value of Thailand's exports comes from goods traded under the benefits of the GSP. This is higher than the estimate of 18 per cent being made by the US. In the first five months of this year, Thailand's exports under GSP benefits were valued at $1.7 billion, while total Thai exports to the US were valued at $7.75 billion.

Jewellery exports are most affected. In the first five months, 96.7 per cent of jewellery exports to the US, valued at $590 million, enjoyed GSP benefits. Television exports amounted to $170 million and auto parts $82.9 million.

Paiboon said that despite efforts to avert the loss of the benefits, Thai enterprises should develop their manufacturing efficiency to compensate for the possible loss of the GSP.

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation