Thaksin Shinawatra could be excused for being concerned after the Criminal Court sentenced three election commissioners to four years in jail and revoked their right to vote for 10 years.

The caretaker prime minister might fear it could happen to him.

Although Thaksin is reportedly still shocked by the lengthy sentences handed to the trio, his speech to his party members on his 57th birthday showed his confidence about winning the October 15 general election.

And he is still keeping mum about his political future and whether he would be the next premier after the poll.

If Thaksin can remember how defiant the former commissioners once were, he should decide his fate sooner rather than later.

In mid-May, they were warned by Charan Phakdithanakul, secretary-general of the Supreme Court, that "if they don't make a decision or decide to delay it, the damage will spread and in the future the Election Commission will suffer from this damage too".

Events have proved that the warning was right. The ex-commissioners can expect to be in jail for a certain period of time, while former member Charupat Ruengsuwan, who resigned in mid-May, escaped a prison sentence.

The picture of the trio's supporters and opponents outside the Criminal Court on Tuesday magnified Thailand's great divide and made the country look a mess.

The disunity will remain if Thaksin returns to power after the upcoming poll.

Pressure from key members of the Thai Rak Thai Party will also mount if Thaksin refuses to announce his political future before election day.

In the past, many believed Thaksin could raise the party's popularity in rural areas, but the feeling has changed, as voters are also seen as being attracted to the party's policies.

Key Thai Rak Thai men believe those voters will not care whether Thaksin is still number one on the party's list of candidates as long as the party still can deliver as much as it has in the past.

They think there will be some benefits for the party if Thaksin decides to take a political break before the election.

Key Thai Rak Thai figures also believe the party will win more votes in Bangkok, and, most interestingly, that the "no vote" will be reduced from the nullified April 2 election. Those who voted to abstain might vote for Thai Rak Thai instead.

Key players in the party, known as the 'Paesano Six', are trying to put pressure on Thaksin to make him announce his political future before election day.

They have reportedly won over Thaksin in their desire to move from a one-man-show leadership to a collective decision-making process.

Even if he wins the next election, Thaksin won't be able to rule the country. That's because the anti-Thaksin group will never let him survive. Other countries will have little confidence in Thai politics and economics.

If Thaksin clearly announces that he will not become premier but will back someone else instead, the PM and his party will still have time to promote a new leader who could command the upcoming poll.

The future of the country depends on Thaksin's decision. Will Thaksin put himself or country first?

Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation