It will be the first time an Asean communique takes on a member in this way. In previous communiques, Asean called on Burma, to no avail, to release Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners. Amid growing frustration, and lacking measures in its current code of conduct to reprimand the pariah member, Asean leaders have resorted to all available avenues to demonstrate their disapproval of Burma's recalcitrance and absence of cooperative spirit.

Asean chairperson and Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar minced no words when he commented that Asean has been held hostage by Burma. Indeed, no Asean leader had previously ventured to articulate this sentiment. As the meeting's host, Syed Hamid has already set the tone for the discussion on Burma.

Last week Asean legislators also issued a strongly worded joint statement after their two-day meeting in Kuala Lumpur. They bluntly told their governments that Asean must accept responsibility for finding a political solution as the grouping had agreed to admit Burma in 1997. They also called on Asean to step up efforts to find political solutions through "pressure and persuasion" and take concrete measures including the reactivation of the troika mechanism.  They also instructed the Asean secretary-general to closely monitor developments in Burma and report them to Asean leaders.  "Such reports should aid Asean to craft pro-active measures on Myanmar [Burma], including concerted engagement with China and India on the issue," the statement reiterated.

Two key issues that will be highlighted by the Asean foreign ministers are the organisation's position on the debate on Burma in the UN Security Council and Burma's future in Asean. At this juncture, Asean does not have a consensus on the Security Council's debate on its member. The Philippines last December supported the US-led move to have an informal briefing on Burma at the Security Council level, the only Asean member that showed defiance. At present, Malaysia has shown willingness to support the council's debate, but other Asean members are still in two minds about it.

Of course, it is extremely difficult to get all of Asean's members to support the Security Council's debate on Burma, even though the grouping's efforts to bring about meaningful reform in the country have failed and it is now time to invite the United Nations to push for changes.

It is interesting to note that while the West worked hard to put Burma on the Security Council's agenda, the Burmese junta was on the offensive to convince its immediate neighbours China, India and Thailand to oppose the initiative. Bangkok was therefore caught in an awkward position, trying to woo Burma on the one hand and trying to avoid upsetting the US on the other. The ongoing political uncertainty did not help.

Fortunately, after a period of ambivalence, Bangkok indicated to Washington recently that it would not do anything to jeopardise efforts to put Burma on the council's agenda. Previously, Thailand said it would block any such an attempt.

While most Asean members are no longer willing to defend Burma, they do not want to further expose the ineffectiveness of the grouping's "peer pressure" system at the highest UN level. Nor would they want to be perceived as playing into US hands over Burma.

In addition, several Asean members do not want to antagonise China and provoke its veto, knowing full well its strong support of the Burmese regime. Beijing as well as Moscow has been opposing the efforts of Washington and its allies. Given the current global focus on more drastic international crises related to the Middle East, Iran and North Korea, these members think the time is not ripe for such discussion anyway.

In recent months Asean Secretary-General Ong Keng Yong has called on China and India to chip in on efforts to help ameliorate the situation in Burma. Syed Hamid echoed Ong's call last week, saying that the two countries were good friends of Burma and could sway its leaders towards democratic reform. But these pleas have so far fallen on deaf ears.

Indeed, it is hard to gauge the seriousness of Asean's pressure on the two Asian giants on Burma. The grouping simply cannot do it without a strong consensus on their perceived roles on Burma. In March 1995, Asean issued a statement condemning China's action over Mischief Reef because all members fully backed the call. In retrospect, it was the only time that Asean had shown any defiance towards China.

The outcome of the Kuala Lumpur meeting this week will impact on the discussion on Burma's future when Asean leaders converge in Cebu for the 12th summit in November. Despite ongoing political crisis, the Philippines would like to see continuing democratisation among its members, especially Burma. After years of lacklustre performance, President Gloria Arroyo, as the summit's host, would like to assert her leadership in Asean as well. Last week, Asean legislators have also signalled their strong support and urged the Philippines to take the lead in exploring and advocating for effective measures to spur democratic transition in Burma on top of the Security Council debate.

A special document could be introduced by the Philippines to ensure that Burma's future intransigence will not be tolerated and will be punished. It would coincide with the completion of the Eminent Persons Group's recommendations on the drafting of the Asean charter.

With Asean preparing for its 40th anniversary next year, core members want the organisation to start afresh, without having to deal with a family member that behaves like a black sheep.

Kavi Chongkittavorn