Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra leads his wife and three children to vote in Bangkok local elections yesterday.

"With the royal decree for the new election, the burden is now on the government. If Thaksin insists on running in the election, there would be opposing forces against his standing. Turmoil would ensue. Between now and the election, anything could happen. It could be the final episode," said a member of the Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT).

To the surprise of everyone, His Majesty the King signed the royal decree last Friday, the day he underwent spinal surgery and the Thai people were concerned for his health and praying for his quick recovery.

The timing of the King's blessing for the new election has been interpreted in different ways.

There had been earlier speculation that a new election would take place only after the remaining three members of the Election Commission (EC) were removed and after the Supreme Administrative Court, the Supreme Court and the Constitution Court had completed their task - as requested by the King himself - of cleaning up the current political mess.

The judges have not completed this task. The Criminal Court is scheduled to rule tomorrow on whether the EC commissioners violated the law in their handling of the April 2 election. If they are found guilty, they could be removed from office to pave the way for the appointment of new commissioners.

The Constitution Court must rule on whether TRT, the Democrat Party and three other small parties violated the election law. But the timing of its ruling is uncertain, and most probably won't be until after the October 15 election.

Up until Friday, Thaksin had been in a defensive mode amid a tense political atmosphere. The chances for his survival looked very slim. Revelations that Thaksin wrote a letter to George Bush and various Asian leaders to complain about "extra-constitutional" forces undermining his government caused a furore. Thaksin assured Bush that a new election would take place on October 15. Thaksin also told senior bureaucrats at Government House that a person with "reserved power beyond the Constitution" was trying to overthrow his democratically elected government. Many thought that Thaksin could be challenging Thailand's most revered institution.

Then a military power play ensued. Last Monday, Army chief General Sondhi Boonyaratglin engineered a military reshuffle in which middle-ranking personnel seen as sympathetic to the government were moved out of Bangkok. This effectively nullifies any attempt from the pro-Thaksin military camp to stage a coup to defend the embattled caretaker premier.

In response to Thaksin's "extra-constitutional" comments, General Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council, was twice seen in combat uniform, calling for the military to back the monarchy and the country.

Key members of TRT were about to stage an internal revolt to force Thaksin to step aside. Thaksin looked as if he were cornered. He had been caretaker prime minister for more than 135 days, the maximum period allowed by the Constitution. He looked vulnerable and could have been driven from power, either through a coup or an internal party revolt.

Then the unexpected twist. His Majesty the King signed the royal decree for the October 15 election.

Thaksin had waited until well after July 8 - the last day that politicians could switch parties under the 90-day rule - before he submitted the election date to His Majesty for royal endorsement. It was the only card he had left, because he knew the election would bring him back to power.

With the royal decree, Thaksin smiled for the first time in several months.

During the political turmoil, people at home and abroad had been asking when the new election could be held or when a new government could be formed. Confidence in Thailand had been receding fast, with foreign direct investment being diverted to other countries and growing doubt as to how the country could function without the Parliament and the budget process. The economy was in danger of suffering another collapse.

With the royal endorsement for the October 15 election, the air of uncertainty has been cleared to an extent. "I was surprised myself when I learnt about the royal decree. But I think it's good because at least we have a timeframe for the new election. And it does not mean that other processes such as the judicial process will stop. Now it depends on the fate of the three members of the EC and the rulings of the courts," said a key member of the Democrat Party.

The King is obliged to sign new legislation, if it goes through the proper democratic process, even if he personally might not approve. The King signed legislation to convert the status of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand into a public company, Egat Plc, a legal process required for its planned privatisation. Later on, the Administrative Court ruled that the Thaksin government's proposed privatisation of Egat was flawed and ran counter to the law. The initial public offering of Egat was killed.

The King did not approve the April 2 election because he viewed it as undemocratic. Only one major party and a few other fly-by-night parties stood in the poll.

There were also questions about the way the EC handled the election, which was seen as unlawful and favouring the ruling party.

In the final analysis, the King, who acts as Thailand's political stabiliser in the last resort, has to shoulder the burden of the nation by making sure that things can move forward. The country can't afford not to have an election. Yet in the meantime, as the political and judicial processes unfold, October 15 is still a very long way off.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation