Rebounding from his government's downfall early this year, caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra appears to be gaining confidence that the October 15 election will take place as planned.

Moreover, he seems sure his Thai Rak Thai Party will lead the next government even though he may have doubts about retaining his post.

However, anti-government movements have different points of view. They are thinking of various solutions - from constitutional rules to military force - to ensure that Thaksin will soon be confined to history.

As they see his return as a threat to their existence and a cause of turbulence, they cannot let Thaksin's plan be realised.

While Thaksin vows to stay as premier to save Thailand's democracy from mob rule, his opponents have launched a fresh attack to unseat him.

Former Thai Rak Thai MP Pramuan Ruchanaseree and government critic Kanin Boonsuwan believe they have found a way to unseat Thaksin.

They claim the Thaksin administration is violating the law by serving as a caretaker government longer than the law allows.

The longest period a caretaker government can remain in office is 145 days, they said, detailing the legal timeframe as follows:

1. An election will be held within 60 days of a House dissolution.

2. The House should convene within 30 days of an election.

3. The winning nominee for premier should have the support of more than half of the 500 House members within 30 days of the first session.

4. If no nominee wins an absolute majority, a new vote will be held within 15 days and the winner can have less than 251 votes.

5. The prime minister appoints a Cabinet for royal endorsement and the process usually takes no longer than 10 days.

Thaksin dissolved the House on February 24, so the caretaker government can not stay beyond July 19.

As the election was held on April 2 (and later nullified by the Administrative Court), the conditions contained in No 2 to No 5 should be counted from this date, the pair said. As a result, the caretaker government should have stepped down by June 25.

The Thai Rak Thai Party, however, still believes in its legitimacy because the law does not mention a period of rule for a caretaker government. The Constitution, it claims, states that the caretaker administration will work until its successor replaces it.

Apart from those two critics, other Thaksin opponents have opened a new front. Several Constitution Court judges have recently become the targets of anti-government groups.

The court will soon rule if the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties should be dissolved following allegations of bribery in the April election.

Thaksin's opponents are calling for certain judges to withdraw from the case, accusing them of having close ties with Thai Rak Thai.

They claim some judges helped Thaksin to narrowly escape in 2001 a conviction for concealing assets. A belief that a military coup could be the answer to the political crisis was fuelled when Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda reminded the country that the military belonged to His Majesty the King, during a speech last Friday.

He made his comments after Thaksin had been accused of challenging royal power by claiming that a "charismatic figure beyond the Constitution" was behind a plot to topple him.

Meanwhile, Thaksin's former military-school classmates are said to be backing him all the way to save his premiership and ensure the election takes place on October 15. A rift in the Army is seen to be widening.

Some observers believe that breaking point is imminent.

Political Desk

The Nation