And with the Thaksin regime showing no signs of budging from its course, it appears that the real battle is about to begin.

Prem, one of the chief symbols of the Thai elite, has publicly worn his Cavalry Corps uniform on two occasions recently: on July 7, accompanied by Army commander-in-chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, as he presided over a stone-laying ceremony for the statue of Queen Sri Bajarindra at the Sri Bajarindra Military Camp in Khon Kaen.

Exactly a week later, on Friday, he made his way to the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy in Nakhon Nayok to deliver a speech on the role of professional soldiers, wearing the same uniform.

This time he was accompanied by former supreme commander General Surayudh Chulanont, who is also a member of the Privy Council, and former prime minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. Chavalit appears to have closed ranks behind Prem.

The wearing of the combat uniform and a speech in which Prem urged the country's soldiers to show loyalty to the monarchy seems to have signalled that a line has been drawn in the sand between the country's elite and the Thaksin regime.

Prem said professional soldiers were obliged to feel that their loyalty lay with the monarchy and to the nation as a whole. Governments, he said, may come and go, but the monarchy and the nation, protected by the military, last forever.

It seems now that opposing forces are on a war footing.

Yet it remains uncertain as to what extent Prem would be able to rally support among the military ranks in the event that an open confrontation erupted.

The other military factions, particularly members of Class 10 of the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School - known as Triam Thahan in Thai - are waiting on the sidelines, watching the developments with a keen eye.

They have been backing Thaksin and will have learned how this power-play game is played by heart from their years in the military.

Thaksin has been given strategic advice and support from key sections of the armed forces that are responsible for security in Bangkok.

It appears he is ready to fight any war - be it military or political. He would not have challenged the elite if he were not sure about military backing, which has now emerged as a decisive factor.

On June 29, Thaksin tested the water by charging that "a person with reserved power beyond the Constitution" had been messing with the independent institutions, adding more confusion to the political climate and trying to overthrow his government.

Most people took this as a message from Thaksin to Prem.

Never before have the Thai elite faced this kind of outright challenge from an elected politician. It is totally unprecedented and has shaken the foundations of the elite. Responses from members of the elite have been muted, while most members of the general public don't really know what is going on in this political drama.

On Saturday, Pongthep Thepkanchana, a deputy head of the Thai Rak Thai Party, followed up with another strong message and direct challenge to the elite, saying they should realise that they no longer have any power.

When they were in power, people listened to them. But now, they shouldn't try to exert power they do not have, he said.

It is true, he said, that governments come and go, but this Thaksin government still has a role to play as caretaker government and it is a duty of all the country's institutions to stick to their lines of responsibility.

Again, there has been no response from the elite following Pongthep's audacious challenge.

Thaksin has gone about his normal business of telling Thais through his Saturday radio talk show that he is the victim of circumstances.

"Anything I do is wrong. Even my breathing is wrong," he complained.

Many people now agree that the political crisis has rendered the 1997 Constitution obsolete.

The Constitution requires a prime minister to be elected. A new election does not seem likely in the foreseeable future, despite the Election Commission's scheduling of a poll on October 15.

If Thaksin were to stand as a candidate, the elite would block the election. If the courts fail to unravel the political deadlock in a manner acceptable to all parties, turmoil would ensue.

The Thaksin camp would not allow the People's Alliance for Democracy to railroad the caretaker prime minister once again. If another huge rally were to be staged against Thaksin, it would be countered by a mob from the Caravan of the Poor from the Northeast or from supporters of the Dhammakaya Buddhist sect.

These scenarios appear unlikely to provide a solution to the deadlock, which many people seem to believe can only be settled through military intervention to tear up the charter.

Thaksin's letters to US President George Bush and the leaders of other Asean members about his political predicament mean that he would not be able to stage a coup to extend his political tenure, one Western diplomat in Bangkok said.

A Thaksin-backed military coup would go against the content of his letters, making him a joke in international eyes, the diplomat added.

One military observer said tearing up the Constitution might not be a bad idea if all parties agreed to it.

"Then a new interim government and interim PM could be appointed, followed by the formation of a panel to draft a new constitution within six months. After this 'clean sweep', a new election could be held under new democratic rules," he said.

Whatever the scenario, Thaksin can afford to wait. In any political equation, he still stands a chance of making a comeback. Politicians, it seems, really do die hard.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation