ANALYSIS
Politics sideswipe road show

Caretaker Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya tried to woo foreign investors to the Thai bourse, but the political situation got in the way, Jiwamol Kanoksilp reports from Singapore.
Caretaker Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya was hoping last week's road show in Singapore would attract much-needed foreign capital to listed companies, but he ran into a barrage of questions about the political stalemate. As he wrapped up his trip it remained unclear to what extent his sales pitch could attract the foreign funds that were the key to the Thai stock market's rally. Fund managers did not ask him about the economy. They wanted to know how bad the political situation was and when it would improve. The road show in Singapore last week drew more than 100 participants from 34 foreign funds that together represent more than 50 per cent of total foreign investment in listed Thai firms. The host of the road show was the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), while Merrill Lynch and Phatra Securities invited fund managers to the event's one-on-one meetings. SET executives argued that amidst the current dismal macroeconomic scenario globally, Thai stocks present a good pick. Foreign investors had been asked from which listed firms they would like to meet executives. They selected 11 firms that represent about 25 per cent of the SET's total market capitalisation of Bt5 trillion. It is uncertain whether this strategy was effective. The attention from foreign investors was greater than expected, but it is questionable that they received what they really wanted. Information on listed firms is much clearer than the big picture. Fund managers were keen for insight into the political situation, not data on firms. Emerging markets have been in the doldrums over the past three months as major external uncertainties overshadow their bourses. The foreign funds flowing into emerging markets, including the SET, earlier this year have dried up over the past few months due to fears of a global slowdown, rising oil prices and uncertainty over the direction of interest rates. The SET had a net inflow of foreign funds to the tune of about Bt90 billion in the first month of the year, but this has declined to about Bt60 billion. Global factors are difficult to gauge, while Thailand also faces political turmoil, which may become the biggest drag on the SET. Thanong repeatedly asserted that no "special force" would be used amidst the political conflict and that the situation was likely to be solved in a democratic way. The next general election will be held before His Majesty the King's birthday on December 5, he said. Investors said they hoped the political deadlock could be surmounted within two months. Until then, brokers are telling Thai investors to keep their cash out of the stock market. Some foreign funds, however, have been game enough to bet that once the political turmoil ends and the situation improves the SET will swiftly rebound. Some have already allocated about 5-10 per cent of their Thailand portfolio back into stocks. The SET last week saw another buying spree from foreign investors, who were net buyers to the tune of about Bt2 billion. Still, despite the cheap price of Thai stocks, the SET is unlikely to recover to 800 points before the political situation is clarified. The road show merely confirmed what foreign investors already know. As long as political uncertainty persists, a dozen road shows will not boost the SET.
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