He must have sensed something was amiss in the thick air around him. The mood on the ground is charged with a strong undercurrent against him. The real countdown is beginning.

But he has to blame himself, once again, for making the infamous remark that set everything in motion. Last week Thaksin charged that a charismatic person, who has power beyond the Constitution, had been trying to undermine democratic institutions and topple his government.

Everyone, from high-society ladies, to the Royal descendants of the Chakri Dynasty, to former senate speaker Meechai Ruchuphan, has pressed Thaksin to come forward to reveal the identity of "the charismatic person". More and more people have been questioning whether Thaksin is trying to challenge the revered institution of the monarchy. Thai Rak Thai Party cohorts have come out to try to repair the damage by asserting that the charismatic person is only an "ordinary person". It all looks like a big farce.

What has been Thaksin's strategy so far? First, he now counts on a fresh election to give him a new lease on life. His situation is now very shaky.

Thaksin would like the election to be held on October 15, so that his Thai Rak Thai would fetch 15 million to 16 million votes again. He is making an all-out effort to get the date for this election fixed.

Without a sitting Parliament, Thai Rak Thai MPs are in disarray. No politicians are planning their campaign strategies now because they don't know when the new election will take place. The absence of a sitting Parliament also affects the status of the executive branch.

How long can Thaksin sustain his role as a caretaker prime minister, which has absurdly exceeded 90 days - the time period during which a new election must be held after the end of the House session as required by the Constitution?

But the October 15 election would not take place if Thaksin were around. The writing is on the wall.

Second, Thaksin is trying to convince people the world over that he is a democratic leader, who came to power through democratic means. He portrays any forces going against him or against his attempt to hold a new election as undemocratic. He has some sympathisers, such as The Economist and other foreign media who believe that the electoral process is the Holy Grail of democracy.

This strategy is really aimed at challenging the "charismatic person" to come out in the open. Thaksin has made his winner-take-all gamble.

Third, Thaksin has to be sure of the military support behind him. In the event that the whole country is really stalled in a political deadlock, a military power play is inevitable.

 A coup can go either way: supporting Thaksin or overthrowing him. There were rumours earlier that some military factions would like to stage a coup and support Thaksin's return to power. This plot went back to February of this year. Then there were also rumours about an attempt to launch a coup to sack Thaksin and to prevent the April 2 election from taking place. But this attempt was put on hold due to some mishap.

Some people say Thaksin has mustered support from about 80 per cent of key military forces, particularly those in the capital. Others believe that the military forces supporting Thaksin might have already been neutralised.

But the situation is such that we might not have to face a military coup. As Phra Siamthevathiraj is the City God protecting Thailand, there will be a miracle to bring the political crisis to a swift end. Then the Thais will be able to pick up the pieces and look forward to rebuilding the country in the post-Thaksin era.

Thanong Khanthong