The month after next could mark a turning point in Thai politics. The uncertainty that has wracked the country this year could come to an end - or the Kingdom may face social division beyond reconciliation.

August is crucial because the deadline to start preparations for the new election looks likely to occur then.

Opposing politicians must settle old scores by the middle of next month if the new vote is to take place on October 15, as has been scheduled.

If the upcoming poll is to restore normalcy to the political landscape, contentious issues spawned by the political crisis must be resolved beforehand.

These issues include the future of the Election Commission (EC) and lawsuits that could lead to the demise of the ruling Thai Rak Thai Party and its main rival, the Democrat Party.

After His Majesty the King advised the judiciary on April 25 to intervene and end the political crisis, the heads of the three top courts called for the EC to step aside and allow the judiciary to restore credibility to the electoral process.

While pundits see the EC as a main stumbling block to sort out the mess triggered by the botched April 2 vote, the EC has stubbornly clung to office as it has the capacity to influence campaign-related court battles as well as the upcoming poll.

The caretaker government appears to have backed the EC in defiance of the courts' demand for the commissioners to stand down.

Ranking members of the ruling party have stepped out to defend the EC on many occasions.

On May 30, the Cabinet submitted a draft decree on the election day for royal approval. The draft provisions set the timeline for electoral preparations. Key dates included enacting the decree on August 24 and candidacy registration in early September.

Politicians looking to swap parties will have to do so by the middle of next month. The 90-day rule forbids them swapping parties immediately prior to an election.

Government House insiders said Thaksin personally put the draft decree to the Royal Palace - in spite of objections from Cabinet secretary-general Borwornsak Uwanno.

Borwornsak resigned from office on June 10 to protest against what he saw as an attempt to derail the judicial intervention to end the political crisis.

If Thaksin had managed to secure Royal approval for the decree last month, the EC would have gained legal immunity to remain in office (in order to prepare for the next poll).

But the draft decree has been put on hold at the Office of His Majesty's Principal Private Secretary.

Thaksin's top legal adviser Wissanu Krea-ngam resigned his position as deputy prime minister two weeks after Borwornsak departed.

Following Wissanu's exit, Thaksin confirmed he would re-submit the draft decree on August 15, tacitly admitting to have withdrawn the draft for a re-write.

Thaksin's retreat in regard to the decree enactment means he will no longer prop up the EC. The Election Commissioners look likely to leave office after Bangkok's local elections are completed on July 23.

The Supreme Court is expected to complete a revamp of the election body before August 24, and thus set the stage for a fresh start.

Meanwhile, the Constitution Court is slated to commence its hearing next month on whether to disband any parties following yesterday's decision by prosecutors to initiate judicial proceedings over the bankrolling of small parties to contest the April 2 election.

The court should reach a conclusion next month in order to clear any uncertainty about the future of the ruling party and its main rival.

Thaksin has made it clear he will fight for his party's survival. The demise of Thai Rak Thai, if decreed by the high court, could see him banished from the political arena for good.

The court battle against the Democrats is expected to be a sideshow and part of the ruling party's legal tactics to threaten a mutual political extinction in exchange for a compromise to ensure its survival and dominance.

Whatever the outcome of the court battles, opposing politicians are expected to emerge bruised but having secured a satisfactory settlement before moving on.

If they fail to bury their animosities after the courts have heard these cases, the scenario is quite alarming, because a military takeover remains the only unplayed card to wipe the slate clean.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation