I had reckoned he was in too deep and would rather proudly go down with the ship, but I was dead wrong.

And yes, my Election Commission (EC) prediction was embarrassing since it seems now that those "shameless, stubborn, thinkc-skinned and suicidal " commissioners will stick around for quite a while longer. (They could be called "persistent, dedicated and brave", depending on who's writing the history.)

So let me try again. At least I was very much right on the money with my very first forecast, about the next general election not coming any time soon.

What's gotten into Wissanu?

He's basically a lawyer and a very shrewd one, too, so take a wild guess. Some have mentioned "conscience", which is possible, although I have my reservations. After all, this is the man who told us the CTX deal was squeaky clean and that there was no malicious political motive behind the Anti-Money Laundering Office's probe into journalists' financial accounts.

His resignation as deputy prime minister and the earlier departure of Borwornsak Uwanno as Cabinet secretary-general have spawned all sorts of gossip and speculation: they may have sensed something really bad was about to happen, or the top two government legal brains must have had enough of protecting Thaksin Shinawatra. Or they may have been told to quit by people they respected, in order to facilitate a sweeping political change. Or they may have incurred Thaksin's wrath after messing up his "holiday" form and thus jeopardising the legality of his status as caretaker prime minister.

Both resignations have rattled Thaksin but are far from being a fatal blow. Unless, of course, Borwornsak and Wissanu decide to break the traditional lawyer-client relationship of confidentiality.

What's the Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) up to?

The prosecutors have been acting strangely, haven't they? On the eve of a major announcement on the election-fraud allegations against Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party, Attorney-General Pachara Yutithamdamrong visited the prime minister at Government House, purportedly to receive instructions on the deep South. And yesterday, an OAG committee concluded that along with Thai Rak Thai, the opposition Democrat Party and three small parties should also be indicted for election-law violations, punishable by party dissolution.

The onus is now on Pachara. He could forward any of the five cases or all of them to the Constitution Court in the next few days. What will he do? From Thaksin's wicked smile and the Democrats' long faces, we can safely assume all five will go to the court.

So what's next?

First thing's first; the election will have to wait. The proposed October 15 poll date was effectively ruled out yesterday. The Constitution Court will have to move fast on its deliberations, but it will be a lengthy process nonetheless. This will serve the "caretaker" prime minister well, unless the courts rule that his "holiday" letter had in effect signalled an intention to resign, which would render the entire caretaker Cabinet illegitimate.

Thaksin thrown out of office for his controversial holiday is an X-rated political scenario, but speculation to that effect has cooled down considerably, particularly now that the Constitution Court has shown renewed signs of warming up to him.

Another crazy but very possible scenario - R-rated, so to speak - has the Thai Rak Thai and the Democrat parties both being disbanded. That would shake up the political landscape somewhat but be far from earth-shattering. We are in an age where "nominees" rule, so expect the big parties simply to transform themselves into something else. The final election date will give politicians enough time to meet the 90-day party-membership requirement to contest the poll.

A PG-13 scenario has some Thai Rak Thai and Democrat bigwigs being sacrificed for the sake of keeping the parties. The senior party officials can be judged to have violated election laws on their own, no matter hard it is to make even the most gullible people believe so. This would allow life to return to normal relatively quickly - or so they hope.

What's up with the EC?

The crippled and much-maligned commission has defied all the odds, dragged the Democrats into the mud and could last much longer than it already has. But if the three remaining commissioners do stay to organise the next election, then God help our Kingdom!

How longer will we have to live with all this?

In my desperate search for a punch-line, a fellow columnist, speaking on condition of anonymity, came to the rescue. "We're all trapped in the movie 'Friday the 13th'," said my colleague. "Every time we think Jason is dead and start hugging one another, his fingers begin to move."

 Tulsathit Taptim