Weisel, the US assistant trade representative for Asia-Pacific, obviously has a sense of humour.

"I got the flag in Chiang Mai. A protester handed it to me at the entrance to the hotel. They didn't know I was a negotiator for the trade agreement," she said recently.

Inside her office, Weisel also displays a newspaper clipping with a picture of Thai protesters. Another clipping stuck to a cabinet features an article from The Nation on how Thais are becoming more stressed by their local politics. Although she didn't say as much, it appears Weisel is keeping the clippings to remind her of how difficult future rounds will be because the trade deal has now become embroiled in Thailand's controversial political affairs.

Asked when she would return to the negotiating table, she said: "It's up to your government".

The timing of Thailand's political stalemate could not be worse for the trade talks. As they are held in abeyance, the clock is ticking towards a looming deadline. The Trade Promotion Authority, which allows the US Congress to approve or reject trade deals without debating each chapter of the text, will expire in June next year.

"I think we must operate under a hard deadline," Weisel said. "We don't have the latitude to move the negotiations beyond the deadline

given by that [fast-track] authority."

Missing the deadline might delay the negotiations beyond the presidential election in two years' time. The US will have mid-term elections this year, leading up to the presidential election in 2008.

A political analyst, Charles Cook, said the Republicans might lose some seats in the mid-term elections. If that's the case, it is unlikely that the administration will push any deal through Congress between now and 2008 "unless it is pretty significant, it has partisan support and it's not controversial", he said.

It remains to be seen whether the Thai trade deal will fit that bill.

US-Asean Business Council president Matt Daley said: "I think everybody understands that the time to do the FTA with the US is right now, while the administration has the authority to do the negotiation. Certainly, Malaysia and South Korea are working on this very tight timetable, and I think if they are able to conclude negotiations by this spring, those agreements have a good chance of being approved.

"My personal feeling is that the agreement [with Thailand] has to wait for a couple of years. We have seen this in the past when we didn't have trade authority. It's not unprecedented."

In spite of expectation that the Trade Promotion Authority may be extended to the conclusion of the World Trade Organisation's Doha round, Weisel is not optimistic.

"That's up to the Congress. We know there's a possibility that it [the Trade Promotion Authority] will not be renewed," she said, recalling the fact that an earlier fast-track authority expired in 1994 and took eight years to renew.

Moreover, the mid-term elections may also complicate the proposed trade pact. Already some congressional candidates are blaming free-trade agreements and the influx of cheaper foreign goods for job losses in their constituencies.

The minority staff director for the Committee on House Administration, George Shevlin, said the Democrats were likely to become more internationalist, rather than the Bush administration "going it alone". However, he added: "There may be components of human-rights and environmental concerns in our views towards Asia."

On the free-trade talks with Thailand, Shevlin said: "Obviously, there are always issues like trucks, sugar and rice. These are the concerns that the Democrats address to reflect the interests of the American workforce."

However, he concluded: "Thailand is a free country with labour unions, which makes it much easier to trade with, much easier to understand, unlike China."

The trade pact with Thailand should be more popular than that with Malaysia because of Thailand's history as a strategic ally of the US, and more favourable than a trade deal with South Koreans, whom Americans view as business competitors, Shelvin said.

Therefore the ball is now in the Thai court. The question is whether a new Thai government will place priority on the proposed bilateral trade pact.

"I think it depends on when your government is put in place," Weisel said. "The caretaker government is not in a position to negotiate at this point of time. I hope we can get back to move the talks forward, but it's unclear at this point."

The US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, Eric John, echoed the view.

"Given the timetable, it will be difficult, but it's a question that the Thai government has to consider and decide," he said.

Asked if she was aware that the FTA was among the controversial issues that led to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's downfall, Weisel said: "I think there are a lot of reasons behind what's going on in Thai politics. The decision to call an election is very complex. The lesson to be learned is that the public should clearly understand the FTA's goals and benefits.

"We tried, during our visit, to meet the people," she said, "but I do think there's a certain gap, and that understanding, and the message, were not as clear, and communication was not as clear, as they should have been."

Jeerawat Na Thalang

The Nation

Washington DC