A high-profile agency that has somehow managed to stay aloof from the country's turbulent politics for most of the past five years has suddenly been handed one of the hottest of political potatoes. Today's decision by the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) regarding election fraud charges against the Thai Rak Thai Party will determine the immediate course for a nation in uncharted territory.

Attorney General Pachara Yutithamdamrong has two simple choices concerning the TRT fraud report submitted by the Election Commission (EC): send it forward to the Constitution Court or send it back to the EC. The first option would unleash huge shock waves on the already volatile political landscape, while the latter option would magnify the agony of the three remaining election commissioners.

The "stubborn trio", as they have been dubbed by their critics, sat on the findings of an EC subcommittee assigned to probe charges that Thaksin Shinawatra's party hired small parties to provide "fake" competition to uncontested TRT candidates in the April 2 general election. With a Criminal Court decision looming today on whether to accept allegations of malfeasance and negligence against the three commissioners, their sudden act on the subcommittee's findings was dubious. Even more so because the three submitted the findings to the OAG without offering any opinion on the case.

Whether or not the commissioners were just trying to protect themselves, the OAG can't have been happy. The prosecutors need a strong recommendation from the EC to guard against outrage by the caretaker prime minister's powerful party and its supporters. Sending the findings back to the EC to demand a proper recommendation is a sensible choice. For one thing, it would put a lot of heat back on the commissioners, widely accused of being biased in favour of Thai Rak Thai.

But the possibility of the OAG forwarding the case straight to the Constitution Court cannot be ruled out. The EC has been a crippled and controversial agency with all kinds of problems, so it's likely that the prosecutors may decide not to look back. This scenario, however, will have a lot to do with how strong the findings are.

As for the EC, it has just missed a chance to redeem itself after acting, uncharacteristically, like a lazy postman. Even before the findings were submitted by the subcommittee headed by retired former Supreme Court vice president Nam Yimyaem, the commission as an independent watchdog had been shattered by the botched election, and its three commissioners became outcasts for clinging to office instead of stepping aside to show remorse.

Now, the commissioners' half-hearted action regarding the Nam panel's findings could backfire and serve as a further nail in their coffin.

Facing the Criminal Court today and bracing for the Nam report to be sent back, EC chairman Vasana Puemlarp and his colleagues Prinya Nakchudtree and Virachai Naewboonnien are fast running out of time and options to engineer a graceful exit.

In his other capacity as registrar of political parties, Vasana is required to recommend prosecution of the Thai Rak Thai Party for allegedly bankrolling minor parties in the April 2 poll. Vasana's decision to withhold his opinion and forward the Nam report to prosecutors will only delay the inevitable - he is obliged to endorse the report eventually but with his reputation further smeared.

The EC's alleged foot-dragging has already triggered speculation about underhanded tactics to help the ruling party buy time to plot a defence and set up a new party as a political lifeboat, should it be disbanded.

No one suspected a potential catastrophe for the ruling party in March when Democrat Party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban sounded the alarm on alleged funding of minor parties during the April 2 election.

Vasana spent almost a month checking Suthep's petition before picking retired Supreme Court judge Nam on April 20 to investigate the matter.

Many commentators viewed Vasana's decision to name Nam, a highly respected criminal judge, to lead the probe as a hasty move. Vasana, it was said, may have felt certain that Suthep did not have a case, and thus may have wanted to rely on Nam's reputation to dispel the allegations.

In his May 8 report, Nam dropped a bombshell on Vasana as well as the ruling party. Based on damning evidence, such as myriad money trails and computerised party membership records, he drew the firm conclusion to charge Thai Rak Thai for electoral offences punishable by its dissolution.

The Nam team said it found that two party executives - Thamarak Isarangura and Pongsak Ruktapongpisal - were involved in hiring small parties to field candidates in the snap poll two months ago. The panel insisted it uncovered evidence of how Thai Rak Thai paid an EC official to rig the membership records for several minor parties in order to overcome the 90-day rule for candidacy registration.

And panel leader Nam spelt out clearly in his report why the ruling party should be dissolved - for trying to cling to power via undemocratic means as per Article 66 of the Political Parties Act. The former judge also recommended holding caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra accountable for his party's actions.

After the report became public knowledge, Thaksin kept quiet and Vasana postponed making a decision on several occasions. The ruling party switched to damage-control mode and began accusing the Democrats of a frame-up.

Thamarak and Pongsak gave their respective statements to the EC after several postponements. Thai Rak Thai has been quick to divert attention from the charges, but slow to present evidence to back up its rebuttals.

Faced with a looming criminal prosecution if it fails to act on the Nam report, the EC forwarded the findings to prosecutors on Tuesday without attaching its mandatory opinion.

The EC and prosecutors could spend weeks exchanging notes, before finalising a prosecution order. But the law is clear: neither the EC nor the prosecutors can drop or modify the charges. The case must go to the Constitution Court to rule whether to disband the ruling party.

While further foot-dragging looks likely, it appears the present political turmoil is set for another explosive moment, which might come sooner rather than later.

Avudh Panananda,

Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation