By staying put, he leads his critics to wonder whether it is because he has a lot to lose, including massive family fortunes, if he yields to pressure and steps down, or whether more scandal makes no difference to the situation he is facing right now.

The necessity of preserving power and family wealth is obviously compounded by the need to protect his cronies in politics and in business as well. It is almost a foregone conclusion that through political defeat they would all stand to face investigations into their assets and be made to explain how they acquired such great wealth.

What's more, the eventual confiscation of assets is virtually guaranteed if there is reasonable proof that they are ill-gotten gains, acquired through abuse of power. So refusing to quit and spending money to preserve what they have is a better alternative than capitulating.

This will be the loss of a great opportunity for the country to avoid what seems to be another national crisis affecting the political, economic and social structure, the result of misguided policy and mischief-making leading to unprecedented corruption.

Thaksin and his cronies face a series of complex legal battles involving criminal, administrative and constitutional courts, thus aggravating the situation under what is regarded as a lame duck administration. Though no verdict has been delivered as yet that affects them severely, their current status of being plagued by credibility and image problems is giving the country a hard time.

While the scheduling of the next general election on October 15 might buy Thaksin and his crowd more time to fight their critics in court, the country stands to lose a lot due to the lack of business activity and new investment. Already, the Bank of Thailand has resigned itself to the fact that trade and balance of payment deficits will be a problem for several months ahead due to structural weaknesses.

Thaksin and his cronies are giving the unmistakable impression that if they go down as a result of their messy legal problems, they will drag the country down with them. The devil may care, but they certainly are not losing any sleep.

Thaksin's status remains a point of legal debate following his on-and-off leave of absence and the breach of his promise to step aside until a new election provides a successor. It will take quite some time before a ruling is expected. Until then, he feels he has enough time to manoeuvre and thwart a possibly negative decision by whatever means available under his sphere of power and influence.

It is difficult to measure which scandal poses the most formidable threat to Thaksin.

There is the explosive evidence of security camera footage from the Defence Ministry that shows highly questionable activities by politicians from small parties believed to have been hired to play along with Thai Rak Thai Party in the recent annulled election.

There were vehement denials from those suspected to have been involved, but these were hardly credible. The pictorial and circumstantial evidence was too damning for Thaksin and his cronies to challenge their authenticity, or the arguments marshalled by their adversaries.

The discovery of mass graves in Narathiwat province was another severe blow to the Thaksin administration. If the number of bodies is in the region of 300-400 as claimed, the government will have to explain the cause of such mysterious deaths and the identities of those who died.

The hard-hitting accusation that Thaksin and close confidants plotted to gain total power through a sinister scheme has yet to be refuted with sufficient credibility.

Ironically, the abundance of scandals has proved advantageous in that it dilutes the reaction to each one.

The severity of the crises will not lead to a sudden change of leadership. Thaksin will almost certainly be around at least until the national celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the King's accession to the throne this coming week and perhaps much longer. Still, an abrupt transition of power would not be a surprise either.

When will his luck run out? Lucky stars have long ceased to cast a decisive influence over Thaksin when compared to his big money and power. Luck alone will not suffice, given the magnitude of the current risks. He needs the help of mayhem to play a saviour role and elevate himself to god-like status, if that would satisfy him.

Sopon Onkgara