This scenario has emerged as a new twist in Thai politics. It sounds almost like a well-known Thai folk song, called "Ta In and Ta Na". Ta In and Ta Na fish together and share their catch. But once, over a meal, they fight for the head and tail of a fish. Amid this turmoil, Ta Yoo comes from nowhere and steals the fillet.

Banharn (Ta Yoo) might walk away with the premiership while Thaksin (Ta In) and Abhisit (Ta Na) fight. If this scenario is correct, Banharn may serve a year as prime minister and focus on pushing through political reforms.

An observer said: "There has been talk among MPs that Banharn and his Chat Thai Party have become a powerful force. They represent a swing vote that could determine the face of the new government.

"The growing opposition to Thaksin's comeback and the immaturity of Abhisit could mean Banharn becomes the most acceptable prime minister. He is not good but he is less vicious."

Most importantly, he can work with all the parties. Banharn served as prime minister for about a year in 1995 and 1996 when economic ills began to develop into the full-blown crisis of 1997.

Banharn chose to dissolve Parliament instead of resigning outright as demanded by General Chavalit Yongchai-yudh, who was a coalition partner, heading the New Aspiration Party.

The former premier has recently played his politics like an old hand. Chat Thai, with only 24 MPs in Parliament, decided to join the opposition and boycott the April 2 election.

After the Constitution Court scrapped the poll, Banharn's party came out with a statement that the Thai public would not want to see another act of collusion in the electoral process and hence distanced himself from the Democrats.

This sparked Democrat suspicions that Banharn might have cut a secret deal with Thaksin. There were rumours that they met in Hong Kong during the Songkran festival and earlier spoke over shark fin soup. The Democrats smelled something fishy, suspecting that Thaksin might offer Banharn the premiership as the public opposition forced him out of office.

There was talk that one of the Thai Rak Thai insiders, such as Phongthep Thepkanjana, Surakiart Sathirathai, Jaturon Chaisaeng or Bhokin Bhalakula might succeed Thaksin briefly during this transition period. But Thaksin has never trusted anybody in his party.

By going for Banharn, Thaksin might have more room to manoeuvre and end conflict in his party, which consists of different factions. Each faction would like its nominee in charge.

Banharn has also got something positive to say about Thaksin.

With the sharp rise in oil prices and the cost of living, Banharn recently called on Thaksin to return to Government House to become an active prime minister again. "The country is facing numerous economic problems. Thaksin should stop shopping and return to work," Banharn said.

Days after the April election, Thaksin announced he would take leave from office although technically remaining the prime minister.

Banharn's call paved the way for Thaksin to make a comeback to Government House and he chaired a Cabinet meeting last week for the first time in seven weeks.

It seems Banharn's latest move is to apply pressure on the Cabinet to announce a date for the general election. He would like to make sure that the election is held in more than 90 days to avoid the article in the Constitution that requires all parliamentary candidates belong to their party for at least that period.

The Cabinet approved seeking a royal decree yesterday in line with Banharn's move. Banharn is also hopeful that many MPs will defect to Chat Thai so he can become a real power after the election.

As he has few choices left, Thaksin might agree to reduce Thai Rak Thai's size by allowing his MPs to defect to Chat Thai, which could then become a branch of Thaksin's party.

In the January 2001 election, the New Aspiration Party served as a branch of Thai Rak Thai, helping it secure a landslide victory.

If Banharn can make a comeback as prime minister, he will end his career in grand style. In spite of fierce criticism, Banharn opened the door for political reforms that led to the drafting of the 1997 Constitution. If he serves as prime minister during the second round of the political reform, he will guarantee himself a place in Thai history.

Somroutai Sapsomboon

 The Nation