Awareness over the ambiguity and anxiety over his status must have been the prime driving force for Thaksin to barge in and retake the caretaker premiership. Then he gets immersed in a tight schedule at Government House, commanding the rescue and relief effort for victims of a severe natural calamity in the North.

Of course there were other farcical claims for his return. Among these were that the national economy could be in a shambles soon without him at the command post, and that drug peddling has become rampant again.

He would never admit his true intent and hidden purpose: that he fears a permanent loss of power and that massive asset holdings amassed through influence and questionable means during the past five years could be tracked down and confiscated.

Most important of all is a legal challenge to his legal status and legitimacy as caretaker prime minister by lawyers in the Administrative Court and soon the Constitutional Court. Legal luminaries have pointed out that Thaksin might have in fact lost his premiership on April 5, when he announced a long leave of absence until a general election could produce his successor.

That means that the entire Cabinet also lost the legal power to rule together with Thaksin. This was even more so when Thaksin chose to pop in and out of Government House at will during the leave, without clear status and legal backing.

He was still on leave during his periodic appearances at Government House for certain tasks, and thus had no legal power to do anything as caretaker prime minister while another caretaker prime minister, deputy premier Chidchai Vanasatidya, remained in charge.

His ambiguous status has prompted legal experts and lawyers to seek a court ruling. Complex legal points will be debated. Thaksin and his Cabinet team could feel the real heat despite their attempts to hastily cover their tracks and tie up loose ends.

When Thaksin returned to Government House on Monday, he assumed command of the government, directing and barking orders during meetings with ministers lasting 11 hours, showing his superb stamina and eagerness to tackle prevailing problems.

It was a somewhat timely return. Two women teachers had been tortured in Narathiwat province and a natural calamity struck Uttaradit, with at least 50 dead and scores still missing. It was Thaksin at his TV prime for all to see, especially when a bunch of roses was handed to him by surrounding villagers.

One wonders how rose gardens in the area could have survived the raging downhill floods for the aggrieved victims to be able to spare a bouquet to cheer up the embattled national leader.

The real legal bombshell will be the question: what status did Thaksin have when he chaired the Cabinet meeting on May 23, before the Cabinet members came up with a new order to rescind his leave of absence? Obviously he had no legal power to do anything until the leave was terminated.

As the two sides engage in a series of court battles, there exists an eerie feeling that the ongoing political crisis will eventually lead to a confrontation and probably violence on the streets in a few weeks from now. What comes after that remains unpredictable.

It has become a common feeling that the current impasse right now cannot be broken without some blood-letting. Thaksin does not want to lose his power to rule because there is a lot more at stake, such as family assets and more legal problems for his clan and cronies who have enriched themselves through shady means all these years.

The key reason for such a dreadful scenario is that Thaksin and his allies - Senate Speaker Suchon Chaleekrua and the Election Commission - have ignored legal advice given jointly by the Supreme Court, the Constitutional Court and the Administrative Court to stand down and allow a new process to get the country back on the right track.

More ominous is that a general election is unlikely even though the date has now been set for October 15. It would not serve any purpose for the election and other rituals to be organised and pave the way for Thaksin to regain his premiership and longer years to rule.

Pro-democracy movements and media persons hostile to Thaksin would surely be dealt with in an unpleasant manner. Thaksin might be tempted to kick off his own dirty war to consolidate his power, leading to thousands of disappearances such as occurred in Argentina more than two decades ago.

Sopon Onkgara