Journalists surround caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra at Government House yesterday on his return from a ‘break from politics’.

Thailand appears to have taken a dangerous turn, plunging into the twilight of political uncertainty following the House dissolution on February 25.

The Kingdom is gripped by fractious politics and has had no government for months. After last month's botched vote there appears to be no prospect of ending the uncertainty any time soon.

The political situation is in a free fall and a frightening scenario is fast emerging as the new reality - the man at the centre of the political maelstrom is determined to remain and kick up an even fiercer storm regardless of the consequences.

After a month-long political break to cool the public fury against him, caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra

has reported back to work - full time.

His comeback is not a stopgap measure in the transition to a new government. The ruling Thai Rak Thai Party has already switched on its campaign machinery to push for his third term, if and when a new election is held.

Should anyone think Thaksin is a political cast-off, a rethink is needed.

Audacious comebacks have been made before. What happened in Washington DC in 1990 might help put Thaksin's future in perspective.

Marion Barry was serving his third term as mayor of the US capital when he was forced to leave office after being caught smoking crack cocaine. The FBI videotaped his crime.

After fighting myriad drug-related charges, Barry was convicted of a misdemeanour offence and served six months in jail in 1992.

Barry then regained power by presenting himself as a champion of civil liberty and urban Black constituents.

Despite his conviction, he remained popular and campaigned from his prison cell.

He was elected to a municipal council seat after completing his sentence and eventually won his fourth term as DC's mayor in 1995.

It may be of interest to Thaksin's supporters that the Barry campaign ran under the slogan, "He may not be prefect. But he is perfect for Washington DC."

Barry's slogan can be readily adopted for Thaksin's campaign because many still view the embattled prime minister as perfect for Thailand.

The ruling party, however, should take note that Barry's fourth term was plagued by so many scandals it curtailed his aspirations for another one.

To this day, Barry remains a popular politician and holds a council seat, but he devotes more and more time defending tax and drug charges against him.

The Barry analogy may soon have a bearing on Thai politics. Winning the popular vote has made it possible for ex-convicts like Barry to serve office. Ethical standards are subjective and politicians with a thick hide can dismiss them as meaningless.

Thaksin can bank on his popularity. After all he is in a much better shape than Barry was. He has a tainted image, not a criminal record.

However, Barry staged a comeback only to discover he was no longer fit to lead.

Thaksin is about to find this out for himself.

For months he has faced a public trial exposing how his leadership is harmful to democratic rule in the long run. His leadership is the root cause of an unprecedented social rift.

Even though a significant majority of voters may re-elect him, popular votes might not truly reflect the will of society if no clear choices are available.

Politicians are engaging in a tug of war over whether to keep or discard Thaksin's leadership, and the ruling party is gaining an edge to prop up Thaksin once again.

As government politicians dominate the political landscape, they can keep on denying voters a new leader.

For the electorate, Thaksin is the only choice offered by the ruling party. He may not have a shred of credibility left, but he is the necessary evil on the ballot papers.

For government politicians, he embodies the vested interests they thrive on.

If Thailand is to overcome the political crisis, politicians must make a difficult decision - keep on clinging to Thaksin in his leaking ship or cut their losses and allow a new leader to emerge.

 Avudh Panananda

 The Nation