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Wed, May 10, 2006 : Last updated 20:41 pm (Thai local time)



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Home > Opinion > Where do we go from here after the court ruling?





STOPPAGE TIME
Where do we go from here after the court ruling?

Wanted: A personal secretary who can handle 50 phone calls a day and accurately analyse sticky legal and constitutional matters that the country's top judicial brains are exhausting themselves over.

The successful applicant should also be able to predict exactly when the next election is going to be held, how long the new House of Representatives will last and what's behind Thaksin Shinawatra's devious smile at any given moment.

I'm not serious, of course. For all of you who made me unplug my office phone, shut down my mobile and appear offline on my MSN, a BIG Thank You for considering me a pundit. But the truth is nobody as recently as the end of last year could have foreseen a snap election, an opposition boycott of the poll, an emotional Thaksin talking about national harmony and announcing a self-imposed political exile, the election being nullified and so on.

Still, for your trust and faith, here is my take on the Most Frequently Asked Questions about our big political mess:

Why is the Election Commission (EC) so thick-skinned?

That's a little harsh. EC chairman Vasana Puemlarp even had to use the ladies' room to avoid reporters while he answered a call of nature, so cut him some slack. Surely, the commissioners have themselves to blame partly, but they have also been victims of circumstance. I sincerely think there was nothing malicious behind their "back to the crowd" voting position. There are more deplorable things the EC did that the Constitution Court failed to pick up on, so it all evens out there.

Was Vasana drunk when he made those statements, or was he simply on the verge of a mental breakdown?

I have absolutely no idea. (For those who missed it, he said he didn't get it why some people would consider an election "undemocratic" if there was only one candidate for certain constituencies.)

When will a new election take place? In other words, will it be 60 days or 90 days from now?

This is one of the most crucial questions. I'm betting 90 days, simply because the time frame would make things very, very interesting. It would give potential defectors in Thai Rak Thai time to jump ship and join other parties or form new ones. One problem is the present Constitution seems to dictate that the next election must take place within 60 days from this past Monday, the day the Constitution Court nullified the April 2 election. But if the Constitution, Supreme and Administrative courts want to overcome this hurdle, nothing can stop them.

Will Thaksin return to power after the next election?

Has he gone anywhere? That is not sarcasm, and that's exactly the point. He remains Thailand's caretaker prime minister, with caretaker Deputy PM Chidchai Vanasatidya acting on his behalf in his "absence". If Thaksin does accept the premiership after the next election, then that will mean he never took any political "break" like he promised so emotionally on April 4.

Our sources within Thai Rak Thai said he would announce during candidacy registration whether he would still be party leader and a party-list MP after the next election - but not accept the post of prime minister. As of now, that's the likeliest and most sensible scenario.

In what I consider his best political speech, Thaksin said on April 4: "My main reason for not accepting the post of prime minister is because this year is an auspicious year for His Majesty the King, whose 60th anniversary on the throne is only 60 days away. I want all Thais to reunite. We have no time to quarrel. I want to see the Thai people unite and forget what has happened."

There are pessimists around here who were frightened by Thaksin's more recent cheeky "I'm an unemployed man" remark. But for myself, if he "accepts" the post of prime minister after the next election following his April 4 speech, I will go into exile. Wait a minute ... you may have to, also, because I've been hearing rumours of civil war or something like that.

Now, what's the deal with all those election-ballot destroyers?

The Constitution Court has practically ruled the April 2 election was unfair and violated civil rights. That's exactly what those people, "led" by Chulalongkorn University lecturer Chaiyan Chaiyaporn, were saying. Convicting them of violating the electoral law would be a joke. A way out that may save everyone's face? They could be found guilty of destroying public property and made to pay a small fine. But if it were me, I would fight to the death to try to set a legal and constitutional precedent.

New election and then what?

The political-reform process needs to take place quickly. The new House of Representatives is supposed to be "temporary", so that Thailand can get a functioning Parliament and government. When constitutional amendments are completed, let the new, free and fair game begin. Too optimistic? Well, barring a certain dreaded aforementioned scenario, things can't get much worse than they are, can they?

Tulsathit Taptim








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