ANALYSIS
Thaksin's path strewn with legal landmines

The cheeky silence from the Thai Rak Thai camp on Thaksin Shinawatra's immediate future may not be just another strategy.
Rather, observers believe, the party must have started to become very concerned about legal threats that lie ahead, especially after the usually friendly Constitution Court coldly snubbed him. Is the nullification of the April 2 election a serious warning to Thaksin and his party? Nobody knows for sure. What is certain is that there are cases, small and big, pending in court, whose outcomes can drastically alter the course of Thai politics. Political analysts are paying special attention to a low-profile criminal charge filed against Thaksin by an American businessman a few days ago. Buoyed by a victory in a civil court battle, William L Monson from Seattle is taking criminal action against the caretaker prime minister, accusing him of theft and fake charges in a dispute that goes back to 1989. Monson's charge carries a maximum penalty of seven years imprisonment. The legal wrangling involves a cable TV joint venture between the two called International Broad-casting Corp (IBC). The American claimed Thaksin violated an agreement, seized transmission equipment from his Seattle-based company and made wrongful charges against him and his staff. The first hearing of Monson's complaint will start on June 19. As to Thaksin ending up being found guilty - which would immediately rule him out of politics - this is a far-fetched scenario. But the case has already generated political intrigue after Monson went to Parliament to organise a press conference last week along with Senator Kraisak Chonhavan, acting chairman of the Senate committee on foreign affairs. Meanwhile, more "conventional" political cases are in store. The embattled Election Commission (EC) has received complaints from the People's Alliance for Democracy, which has accused Thaksin of vote-buying when he donated money to a vocational school and when he promised at a political rally to give notebook computers to all children including kindergarten students. These are minor complaints, compared with another case in which the Thai Rak Thai Party is accused of hiring candidates of small parties to run in the April 2 election. The alleged hiring was said to be a ploy to side-step a constitutional requirement that candidates without competition must receive at least 20 per cent of support from the constituencies they run in. The EC has already dissolved two small parties allegedly "hired" to compete in the election. It's now in the process of considering whether there is enough evidence to find the Thai Rak Thai Party "guilty", which could lead to the unthinkable possibility of the party being disbanded. However, Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin can take heart in the fact that the EC itself is facing a legal battle, after the Democrats filed a suit with the Criminal Court accusing the commission of malfeasance. Moreover, with the April 2 election now nullified, cases related to it might be considered null and void, too. But the ruling camp and Thaksin can never rest assured that they will easily escape legal threats in the future. The Administrative Court has proven a thorn in the government's side in political cases. The Constitution Court, for the very first time, has dealt Thaksin a blow. The Criminal and Supreme courts will have to be very straightforward when dealing with facts and figures. And there can be more cases. The Temasek deal can still come back to haunt Thaksin, for example. This is not to mention that the upcoming constitutional amendment will reinforce restrictions against conflicts of interest and make it far easier for Parliament to grill the next prime minister. The aforementioned legal threats, of course, may or may not materialise. And, like it or not, they will be linked with whether Thaksin decides to keep a low profile. In other words, his opponents now have come to realise that, with the judiciary shaping up, it's easier to take him on legally, rather than politically. As he keeps everyone guessing about his immediate plans, Thaksin Shinawatra must have found that if he wants a quick return to power, the road ahead is fraught with landmines that will threaten not only his political career but also his business fortunes.
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