In the first three months of this year 52 people in seven countries were infected with the deadly virus. With bird flu reaching wide areas around the world because of infected migratory birds, it is estimated that the virus could spread to as many as 40 countries and infect some 200 humans by the end of this year.

Outbreaks of bird flu have become seasonal in many areas of the world. Mutation of the strains is happening all the time through cross-species transmission. The outbreak of a pandemic that could kill millions of people worldwide is no longer a distant possibility.

International reactions, particularly from countries where the fatal H5N1 virus has just been detected, have been dramatic and robust. The European Union and even the United States, which has yet to detect bird flu on its soil, have held crisis talks on the spread of the virus.

Countries already affected have reacted strongly by ordering quarantines of affected areas and mandatory culling of birds and issuing recommendations based on the potential risks to humans.

Rich industrial nations have started thinking about fast-tracking development of flu vaccines to ensure that their citizens are better protected in the event of a killer pandemic.

Healthcare experts have warned that time will be very limited if bird flu starts to mutate and spread easily between humans, since it could take up to six months to make vaccines and bring them to market. An enormous allocation of human and financial resources has been made in order to step up preparedness for what could become the world's worst public-health crisis in a century.

Relatively speaking, Southeast Asia, where the virus first surfaced and where 62 of the more than 100 people infected have died, has not done nearly enough. A serious lack of public awareness and an absence of government commitment to deal with this potential healthcare disaster are still the norm.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has issued repeated warnings, which generally fall on deaf ears, that Southeast Asian countries will be ill prepared to contain a bird-flu epidemic unless they received significant financial and technical assistance from wealthier countries.

It is estimated that at least US$260 million (Bt10.6 billion) is needed by the WHO, the Food and Agriculture Organisation and the World Organisation for Animal Health to tackle human and animal factors in order to bring the on-again-off-again avian-flu epidemic under control. Donations from rich industrial countries are just trickling in at the moment, and the funds raised so far are not anywhere near the amount required for a basic regionwide defence against the virus.

Thailand has learned from its mistakes. The Thaksin administration committed serious blunders when the bird flu first hit the country in 2004, either playing it down or withholding crucial information about the extent of the epidemic for fear of losing face or incurring economic damage to the country. Lax enforcement of the mandatory culling of poultry and wild birds, as of quarantines, in affected areas also contributed to the worsening of the crisis.

Thailand has since put in place proper mechanisms and adequate resources for combating intermittent bird-flu outbreaks. It now has one of the better systems among developing countries for monitoring flu strains in birds and humans. The latest measure by the Public Health Ministry to stockpile 1.5 million doses of anti-viral drug oseltamivir and three million doses of influenza vaccine have strengthened the country's defences. Another good move is the decentralising of decision-making in the event of outbreaks so that public health or livestock department officials can take drastic action to contain the virus.

But in Thailand, as elsewhere around the world, there is no room for complacency.