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Tue, May 2, 2006 : Last updated 14:10 pm (Thai local time)



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Home > Opinion > Thaksin is coming home to a different Thailand





REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Thaksin is coming home to a different Thailand

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will find a different country altogether when he returns home. It is a new Thailand that he no longer has control over, as it has been sanitised and stamped "under judicial review", thanks to His Majesty the King's wise words on the sanctity of the rule of law, which were timed with precision.

When Thaksin set off on his weeklong world tour, he thought self-indulgently but wrongly that he held all the cards. After all, the April 2 polls and April 23 by-elections had been muddled through and a third round of voting for the few remaining vacant seats was scheduled for the weekend. But then a lightning bolt struck.

On Friday, the Central Administrative Court ruled that a lawsuit filed by Dr Poepong Banluewongse and nine other people had grounds and agreed to suspend the by-election temporarily. That was a big shock to the caretaker premier and his Thai Rak Thai Party.

Obviously, the court's decision signals the beginning of a new turn in Thai politics that Thaksin was not prepared for. Judicial review, which is practised among Western democracies, is a form of court proceeding in which a judge reviews the lawfulness of a decision. It is a challenge to the way in which the decision was made. It is not surprising that the King earlier in the week asked the Supreme Court, Administrative Court and Constitutional Court to jointly find a way out of the political impasse following the April 2 snap election.

The country's top judges have started to examine all aspects of the controversial polls and will pass down their verdicts very soon. This judicial process, a first in Thailand, is not really concerned with the results of the electoral process and whether they were "right", as long as the right procedures were followed. In this case, the 30-day issue is still a red herring.

Thaksin successfully fooled rural Thais in the North and Northeast regions - and some global leaders, unfortunately - into believing that he was making a sacrifice for the good of the country by declining to become premier in the next government. As he pointed out, he was doing this even though he won 15 million votes compared with 10 million abstention votes. But he has shown in many ways that he intended to return to politics and lead the country again in the near future.

Indeed, Thaksin was so confident of his political comeback that he proceeded to touch bases with French President Jacques Chirac, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Before leaving, he told the media he was travelling to meet old friends and would brief them on the situation in Thailand following the House dissolution and the elections. He did in fact have 30-minute meetings with Chirac, Blair and Putin. No photographs were taken of the French and British meetings as they were informal, although a photo of Thaksin with Putin was distributed to the Thai media.

It was interesting that during his meeting with Koizumi in Tokyo on Thursday, Thaksin deliberately skipped over a most important political development in Thailand two days before - HM the King's comments on the undemocratic nature of a one-party election. No details of his trip to China have been released so far.

For an interim national leader to seek meetings with his counterparts puts them in a very awkward position. There are three kinds of meetings recognised in international diplomacy: state visits, which are the highest level of meeting, official visits and working visits. This is the accepted norm. Not many leaders have behaved liked Thaksin, who sought to meet leaders he described as "friends" during a transitional period between governments.

Of course, it was a wonderful spin for the Thai audience back home, showing Thaksin's standing among the top Western leaders. But they are definitely not his friends, by any measure. Meeting them once or twice or even thrice at summits or conferences does not make these world leaders Thaksin's friends. It was presumptuous of him to say that.

Once Thaksin returns to Thailand, the people will see for themselves which way his inclinations lie. At the moment, nobody knows what role, if any, Thaksin will play in the upcoming celebrations of His Majesty the King's 60 years on the throne from June 9 to 13. For the time being, it is hard to say because the organising committee is keeping such arrangements confidential.

It is an open secret though that Thaksin is obsessed with official positions, something his Cabinet members fully understood and fought for. When UN Secretary General Kofi Annan visits later this month to present His Majesty an award for his lifelong work on the practice of sufficiency economy, the Cabinet made Thaksin the chairman of the organising committee.

Nobody knows what Thaksin's next move will be. Is he willing to face the consequences of his actions? The judicial review has already opened a Pandora's box concerning his own political future. 

 Kavi Chongkittavorn








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