We can only hope the likes of deputy Thai Rak Thai leader Somsak Thepsuthin do not reflect Thaksin's thoughts. The political, legal and constitutional situations are complicated, volatile and fragile enough without throwing Thaksin into the equation. The prospect of his quick return while the country's political-reform process has not even started would surely rekindle the widespread animosity that repeatedly threatened to explode into violence in recent months.

Any new election would not be the "new beginning" suggested by Somsak, but rather a measure, albeit a precarious one, to get our crippled political system back on its feet. Thailand urgently needs a functioning and acceptable Parliament, and the proposed new election could produce some semblance of that. Once the new Parliament is in place, a government can be set up and the constitutional-amendment process really get going. It's such a long, treacherous road that lies ahead.

There have still been skirmishes, despite the uneasy truce resulting from Thaksin's emotional announcement of temporary exile. Democrat figures now cannot stage rallies in some northern and northeastern constituencies without strong security measures, and Thai Rak Thai candidates have faced hostility in the South. The People's Alliance for Democracy is still a very active force, and one of its leaders, Sondhi Limthongkul, yesterday surrendered to police to face political charges.

Imagine a fresh election battle centred round a vote-me-back-into-office theme. Could Thailand withstand something like that in the next couple of months? Should the Kingdom, during this most auspicious period for its beloved monarch, make a decision about this potentially explosive issue while everyone is still reeling from the turmoil it has already caused? Not to mention that the much-desired reforms remain elusive and unlikely to be accomplished anytime soon.

It's understandable that Thai Rak Thai would like to see Thaksin as its flag-bearer once again. He won considerable sympathy with his seemingly humble "exile" speech. Combine that with still-strong support from the grass roots, and the party could easily win again, although not by a large margin. But a bigger reason is that if Thaksin cannot return soon, he may not be able to return at all.

Despite his lingering influence, Thaksin no longer controls his own destiny. The timing of the new poll will be crucial, and the sooner a new election is held, the greater the advantage Thaksin and his party will have. But if his "break" lasts another three months or longer, it will unlock a major constitutional chain allowing many disgruntled Thai Rak Thai members to defect, a scenario that would seriously hamper the party's chances unless it has "Thaksin will be back" as its selling point.

As far as Thaksin himself is concerned, he needs another election triumph as soon as possible to prove everyone wrong. If he wins another big victory, he will be in a good position to resist reformers' efforts to write a new Constitution that would shut the door on others like him in the future. If he doesn't seek a quick return and watches the constitutional reform process from the outside, he might be kept at bay for good.

The motives are there for Thaksin to plot his immediate return. But sound reasoning dictates that if he returns at all, the next few months will be the worst possible time - for himself and the entire nation.