The judges of the Administrative Court and Supreme Court who attended the swearing-in ceremony at Hua Hin's Klai Kangwol Palace on Tuesday quickly took note of the King's remarks. The King told the judges to take necessary action to restore democracy. Today, the top judges of the Supreme Court, Constitution Court and Supreme Administrative Court will hold an unprecedented summit to find a way to break the political deadlock. This means that a verdict from one of them would be good enough to nullify the April 2 election.

A bitter political divide appears to have been closed, albeit temporarily, by this artful intervention of His Majesty the King. Since the democratic institutions can't function during this time of political polarisation, the King came out to advise the judiciary to take on the critical assignment of saving the nation - executed by constitutional means. The Democrat and other opposition parties immediately signalled that they would await the judges' decision. Chidchai Vanasatidya, caretaker deputy prime minister and a Thai Rak Thai strongman, also concurred with the move.

A consensus has emerged that a fresh election looms. The judges will arrive at their decision quickly. After the April 2 election is nullified, the Election Commission will have to work out a new election schedule. The Democrats and other opposition parties, which boycotted the snap election, have already prepared lists of MP and party-list candidates to field in the new election. So has the Thai Rak Thai Party.

The signal from Thai Rak Thai is that Thaksin Shinawatra is ready to make a comeback. He promised after the April 2 election not to take up the post of prime minister again. But with the new election, it is a completely new ballgame. And Thaksin is very keen to make a comeback. That's a big question mark.

The past three months seem like a nightmare for Thailand. Still, the country will move on as it looks forward to celebrating the most auspicious occasion of the 60th anniversary of His Majesty the King's coronation in mid-June. Any political events will have to be postponed to after this grand ceremony.

For the time being, the Election Commission is sticking to its plan to hold a third round of by-elections in order to fill in as many seats as possible in Parliament. Until a court ruling to nullify the April 2 election, the show must go on for the EC. However, the EC will be tasked again with holding the new election, which may take place 45 or 60 days after the celebration of the King's anniversary. So by the third quarter of this year, Thailand should have a new Parliament and a new government.

Thai Rak Thai is expected to return to power again after the new election, unless the Democrats and other opposition parties can spring a big surprise. But Thai Rak Thai's 15 million votes are hard to beat. They represent the core supporters of the party. Although the political tide, or "krasae", is going against Thai Rak Thai, it is difficult to whip up the sluggish Democrats, headed by Abhisit Vejjajiva. The largest opposition party has not escaped blame for its call for a royally appointed government, which was rebuked.

If the April 2 election amounted to a national referendum on Thaksin, the new election should bring Thai democracy back on a rough course again. The Thaksin regime remains alive and kicking. All the political parties will be focusing more on policy platforms. The Democrats may have a chance if they ride the wave of current political sentiment. If they campaign on a platform of no privatisation, no selling of assets to foreigners and no free-trade agreements, they might bag a sizeable number of votes. A clear platform on energy conservation or promoting the use of bio-diesel to reduce the high cost of living as a result of higher oil prices will also win them more votes. A concrete policy to help the poor will also take away votes away from Thai Rak Thai.

If the election is held, Thai Rak Thai is expected to win 250 seats, or half of the seats in the House of Representatives, and form the next government. If the Democrat, Chat Thai and other parties can win more than 250 MPs combined, they could form a coalition government. But they have to bring out the big guns, which they don't seem to have at the moment.

Nobody expects the new government will be able do anything much because it will mainly focus on overseeing political reform. And nobody is certain whether this will mean minor or wholesale amendments of the Constitution. Thailand is back at the bottom of the learning curve of democracy again after five years lost to the Thaksin regime.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation