OVERDRIVE
One last chance to break out of a political chokehold
If you were hoping the April 19th election would produce a new Senate that would strengthen the checks-and-balances system, then you are in for another big disappointment.
More than half of the newly elected senators have already shown their true colours, and it is assured that they will give their allegiance to the Thaksin regime. The script has been written in advance. Although Thaksin Shinawatra is taking a break, his regime is still going strong.The Thaksin regime is all-powerful. The ruling tier is supported by powerful factions in the military, the police, the Senate, the House of Representatives, the bureaucracy, big business groups, the CEO governors, local headmen, and the grassroots people mainly in the North and the Northeast. Wednesday's election will consolidate power at the top echelon, alongside the powerful Thai Rak Thai allies in the military and the police. Due to the opposition's boycott of the April 2 snap election, almost all members of the House of Representatives are from Thai Rak Thai. The key bureaucrats - permanent secretaries, director-generals and directors - serve the policy directives of Thai Rak Thai with dedication. If they didn't, they would be removed to inactive positions. Nowadays the senior Thai bureaucrats are more afraid of Thai Rak Thai than anything or anyone else. Some 10 big business groups have allied themselves with Thai Rak Thai, in order to benefit from government policies and the stock market. The CEO governors and the local headmen are mostly serving Thai Rak Thai to partake in their share of the spoils. And at the end of the pipeline is the huge grassroots base of voters in the North and the Northeast, who have benefited from the patronage system and populist policies, and therefore vote for Thai Rak Thai. The anti-Thaksin camp is no match against this regime. It consists of the Bangkok elite, the intellectuals and academics, the students, the middle class, some privately-owned media, some medium-scale and small-scale entrepreneurs, and the urban voters in other provinces. Thailand is completely split into the two camps. You're either a Thai Rak Thai supporter or an anti-Thaksin person. It is very difficult for a Thai to keep a neutral stance in this climate of political polarisation. Nobody knows how long this polarisation will continue. But it does not bode well for the country as a whole. A country without unity can't move forward. The Bangkok elite and the middle class have been able to put pressure on Thaksin, forcing him to make a series of political retreats. They have made a big issue of his family's sale of Shin Corp to Temasek of Singapore. In their eyes, Thaksin lost his legitimacy to remain in power after the Shin Corp deal, because his ethical conduct while in office has been fundamentally shaken. Thaksin has not tried to address the conflict-of-interest question, but instead opted to dissolve Parliament and call for snap elections. The consequences are predictable: Thailand is bound for a big political mess. The anti-Thaksin allies cannot write Thaksin off because he is still pretty much in the game and his regime is showing no signs of wobbling. His support in the new Senate is even stronger than before. This has dampened the prospects of the Senate getting tough on corruption and fulfilling its role in picking independent and qualified people to serve in the eight independent bodies as intended by the Constitution. The Parliament is obviously completely under Thai Rak Thai control, without any countervailing influence from the opposition. As he controls Parliament, Thaksin will continue to have influence over the key policies and appointments by pulling the strings that are tied to his nominees. Thailand's fate will be decided over the next few weeks, as the issue is resolved whether the new Parliament can open its first session. At this point, it is quite certain that Parliament will not have the 500 MPs as required by the Constitution. Opening Parliament will therefore require a Royal Decree signed by His Majesty the King. If Parliament can convene, it will pave the way for Thai Rak Thai to appoint a new prime minister. If this does not happen, the snap election will have to be nullified and a new interim government will have to be formed instead. Then the political reform process can start. So much is at stake now. If Parliament can convene, Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai will be able to call the shots and continue to dominate Thai politics for a long time to come. Well, we all have to wait for a miracle. Thanong Khanthong The Nation
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