Fifty-five commercial counsellors will convene today in Bangkok to consider whether the country's export growth target should be revised amid the sharp spike in oil prices and a strong baht, which could hurt demand and exporters' foreign-exchange income.

Chairing the meeting will be caretaker Commerce Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

The commercial counsellors will review export-promotion strategies and consider necessary steps to achieve the export growth target of 17.5 per cent. If that target is achieved, the value of Thailand's exports this year will be US$130 billion (Bt4.91 trillion). If not, Thai economic growth could be in peril, because exports are now the major engine driving GDP.

High oil prices are expected to rein in demand for Thai exports, while some exporters have complained that the strong baht has already cut their income 5-7 per cent once foreign-exchange-denominated income is converted into the local currency.

However, the Bank of Thailand is confident Thailand's export growth will remain on track, due mainly to continued buoyancy in the Chinese economy and the resurrection of the European and Japanese economies. This explains why the central bank has not intervened in the foreign-exchange market, even though the baht hit a six-and-a-half-year high of 37.98 to the dollar last week.

Thai commercial counsellors are also confident that the original export-growth targets are achievable.

Surasak Riangkrul, director of the Thai Trade Centre in New York, said he was confident Thailand would achieve the target it set for the US market, despite several negative factors and the suspension of the Thai-US Free-Trade Agreement (FTA).

Thailand expects income from exports to the US to increase 15 per cent to $20 billion.

"It was a shame we lost our chance to boost growth through the FTA. However, we will closely monitor progress and believe we'll be able to tackle all of the problems," he said.

The Thai Trade Centre in New York will strongly promote a variety of products this year, particularly services, gems and jewellery and processed food.

One of its new plans is to hire Fijian golfer Vijay Singh to promote Thai restaurants. The department is currently negotiating with Singh, who loves Thai food. Asked about the costs for hiring him as a presenter, Surasak said the government would not need to pay a huge sum, because private Thai restaurants in the US would contribute to his fee.

In addition, the New York office plans to work with major US supermarkets to launch more Thai products.

Adisai Dhummakupt, executive director of the Thai Trade Centre in Pretoria, South Africa, expects export growth for the area to remain at 30 per cent, thanks to the high demand for Thai products.

He said his office was conducting a plan to set up an in-store outlet in Woolworth's, the biggest department-store chain in South Africa, with more than 180 branches. If Thai products could be sold there, it would boost export growth.

Adisai also revealed that Thailand's Fiscal Policy Research Institute is now studying an opportunity to negotiate a free-trade agreement with the South African Customs Union (SACU). The SACU consists of five countries: South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland.

Mallika Puajindanetr, director of the Thai Trade Centre in Shanghai, China, said export growth to China should meet its 40-per-cent target, thanks to the free-trade agreement with that country.

Mallika said goods with a high growth potential included fruit and other agricultural products, plus construction materials. The high demand for construction materials is due to China hosting the 2008 Olympics. 

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation