Instead, they should view the caretaker premier's latest move as only another tactical retreat, for Thaksin remains the dominant leader of Thai Rak Thai Party. He still wields the power to nominate the next premier from his own party, given the 16 million votes cast in his favour in last Sunday's incomplete election.

The controversial poll result included some 10 million "abstention" or "no" votes and more than two million "invalid" ballots, as well as an insufficient mandate to declare victors in 38 constituencies.

Pundits in the anti-Thaksin camp have suggested that the caretaker premier decided to take a political break of nine-15 months simply because the number of "no" votes was unexpectedly high. Politically, the move was intended simply to ease the rising tension between pro-government and anti-government groups for a certain period of time.

This was similar to earlier tactical attempts by the government camp to ensure that the April 2 election was not derailed by its opponents, especially the three former opposition parties - Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon. These three parties called the election "illegitimate" on the grounds that the reasons given by the government for dissolving the previous House of Representatives were not valid.

In hindsight, Thaksin's first tactical retreat was his decision to dissolve the House on February 24 in the wake of rising public opposition to his five-year-old regime. At the time, the premier could have believed that such a major political move would be sufficient to shore up his sagging popularity following the controversial Bt73-billion tax-free sale of his family's stake in Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings of Singapore.

Thaksin could also have believed that he would easily return to power following the election, given that his political opponents were still too weak to beat him at the polling booth. At the time, he did not think that all his opponents would refuse to participate in the polls entirely, citing their constitutional right to abstain.

The result of this was that the public later saw more than a dozen small parties, many of which had never been heard of before, fielding candidates for the election. An obscure candidate from one of these parties has won a House seat in a southern province with just about 3,000 votes, making him the lone opposition MP so far. A fresh round of voting will be held later this month to fill the 38 empty MP seats, most of them from southern Thailand.

We will likely see the Election Commission and the Thai Rak Thai Party go all out once again to ensure that all these seats are filled, because otherwise it is legally not possible for the new House to convene and elect a premier.

Ultimately, Thaksin's strategy is to avoid a situation in which Article 7 of the Constitution could be invoked to resolve the political impasse. To do this, the caretaker premier must ensure that there is no civil unrest and that there will be a new House soon so that he can continue to direct his party and its "nominee" premier from behind the scenes.

This goal runs counter to that of the anti-Thaksin movement and the opposition parties, who would prefer to see the caretaker premier tender his resignation now. That would effectively open the way for invoking Article 7 to allow the appointment of a non-partisan premier to oversee amendments to the Constitution.

Thaksin's opponents feel that such a crucial task as amending the charter ought not to be overseen by the Thai Rak Thai and its "nominee" premier. But Thaksin's tactics will change constantly to achieve the ultimate strategic objective of avoiding Article 7 and keeping his party's hold on power.

ophakhun Limsamarnphun

 nop1122@yahoo.com