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Mon, April 10, 2006 : Last updated 13:09 pm (Thai local time)



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Home > Opinion > Thaksin is down, but he's not out





EDITORIAL
Thaksin is down, but he's not out

The TRT leader may have been laid low by the recent turn of events, but he is a formidable political escape artist

No one should underestimate Thai Rak Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra's political survival skills. The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), consisting mainly of the urban middle-class elite and political activists, managed to sway almost half of the country's electorate to rise up against Thaksin, thereby successfully pressuring him into not leading the next government, but that does not mean this great manipulator will simply roll over and die.

To most, it may seem obvious that the well over 10 million abstentions cast in Sunday's general election was a resounding rejection of Thaksin, his Thai Rak Thai Party and the political culture of deceit and corruption that they stand for, but to Thaksin and his party cadres, the voluntary suspension of his career is part of their tactical retreat in the face of an unexpected surge in anti-Thaksin sentiment.

In a way, the PAD's demand for Thaksin to forgo the premiership, in order to make national reconciliation possible also suits him. After all, for Thaksin to insist on becoming a third-term prime minister would be nothing short of political suicide.

His game plan is not difficult to read. By his announcing he will "sacrifice" the ultimate political prize to enable a divided nation to heal itself, the volatile political situation, which at times in the past two months has threatened to erupt into violence, has eased up. Society heaved a collective sign of relief and believed the worst to be behind it.

Many began to look forward to constitutional reforms being implemented jointly by an impartial panel of constitutional-law experts and civic leaders, along with broad participation by the new government, a new House of Representatives and everyday citizens. Once political reforms have been completed, the new, interim government would dissolve the House, paving the way for a free and fair election.

But people soon discovered that by passing up the premiership during this turbulent time, what Thaksin actually did was perform an act of political self-preservation, and he was already busy plotting his comeback. After all, Thaksin never said he would never again assume the highest political office, nor did he promise not to pull any strings behind the new government, which will likely be led by one of his trusted Thai Rak Thai minions in the meantime.

As things stand, Thaksin continues to hold sway over his Thai Rak Thai Party, which completely dominates the House of Representatives, because of the main opposition parties' boycott of last weekend's vote. And there may be technical hurdles that the House still has to clear before it can convene its first meeting to elect a new prime minister.

But it was never doubted that all this while Thaksin would remain in control of virtually every step in the process leading up to the appointment of the new prime minister, on to constitutional reforms and beyond.

Let's not forget that key "independent" watchdogs, including the Constitution Court, the sole arbiter of the highest law in the land, the National Counter Corruption Commission, the lead graft-fighting agency, and the Election Commission, which organises elections, have already been compromised and fallen under Thaksin's influence. Having done so, they cannot be expected to carry out their duties in a straightforward manner.

It turns out that the supposed solution offered by Thaksin to end this political crisis of his own making was designed instead to provide him with a desperately needed respite and for his Thai Rak Thai Party to regroup and counterattack.

That's why it is encouraging to know that the PAD is now making additional demands to Thaksin's stepping aside. These include the setting up of an independent inquiry to look into corruption allegations and conflicts of interest involving Thaksin, his family and their cronies. All wrongdoers, no matter how rich, how powerful, how well connected they be, must be prosecuted and punished, if only to make an example of them and deter future tyrannical leaders. This will only serve to increase the chances of political reforms achieving their intended purpose.







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