ANALYSIS
Temasek reaps Bt3.9-bn Shin dividend

On May 9, Temasek Holdings and its partners will receive Bt3.92 billion as a dividend from Shin Corp Plc, the first big return it will reap from its costly investment in the Thai telecom holding company.
Shareholder registration for the dividend closed on Wednesday. Without any change in the shareholding structure, the state-linked investment firm Temasek and its partners as of the day held 96.1 per cent of the company. That is equivalent to 2.91 billion shares. Based on the approval of Shin's board of directors to pay Bt1.35 per share for the latter half operations of 2005, payable on May 9, the investors are entitled to a combined dividend payment of Bt3.92 billion. The dividend is 2.7 per cent of the Bt143 billion that Temasek and its partners, namely Kularb Kaew and Siam Commercial Bank, paid for the deal that was wrapped up in March. The huge investment fits well Temasek's description of the deal: "Our investment in Shin Corp reflected our confidence in Thailand's long-term growth." Recently, there were reports that Temasek could suffer huge losses from the investment. A Bloomberg article in March was the first to highlight the potential of losses. Less than two weeks after the end of the tender offer on March 13, shares of Shin Corp fell to a four-month low at Bt37, against the Bt49.25 price Temasek paid for the shares. That translated into a paper loss of Bt35 billion, or 24.4 per cent of the original investment value. The latest article was circulated by Reuters on Wednesday: "Shares in telecom conglomerate Shin have fallen since the deal was struck, leaving Temasek and two majority-owned Thai holding companies sitting on a paper loss of over US$850 million (Bt32 billion) on their holding, which was 96 per cent as of March 14." The rally in the Thai stock exchange on Tuesday and Wednesday helped narrow the loss gap. Shin Corp's share price went up to Bt38 at the market close on Wednesday, up from Bt36.75 on the previous day. But that is still 23 per cent down from what Temasek paid for the shares during its tender offer. That is equivalent to an accounting loss of Bt32.8 billion. Probably due to this concern, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong gave a speech on the Temasek's investment in parliament on Monday. Still, it is too early to say if Temasek's investment in Shin Corp will suffer in the long term. Greg Pau, an analyst at Standard & Poor's, told Reuters: "I don't see any indication that business should be affected. My experience and common sense would say if indeed that happens, that would not bode too well for a country which is trying to attract foreign investment."
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