A group of 585 lecturers from 41 universities yesterday released an open letter that urged voters to tick the "no vote" (abstention) box when casting ballots in tomorrow's election, saying the outcome of the voting could end the political turmoil by ousting Thaksin Shinawatra from the premiership.

The campaign has come at a time when speculation is mounting over how the "No" vote could be the most peaceful and most effective way to edge Thaksin from power.

"This is a race between Thai Rak Thai Party and the abstention voters that will prevent Thaksin from resuming his premiership," Thammasat University lecturer Prinya Thewanaruemitkul said, reading the letter.

The number of abstained ballots could influence Thaksin's political future because he has pledged not to lead the next government if he obtains less than half of the votes cast tomorrow, Prinya said.

If some 3 million swing voters were to opt for the no-vote tomorrow, it could go far in supporting another 13 million no-votes that are expected to be cast by supporters of the opposition groups.

Together, 16 million no-votes could be sufficient to force Thaksin to step down.

Prinya projected that 16 million ballots would be needed to oust the premier. This is based on an anticipated turnout of 31 million out of 45 million eligible voters, accounting for 70 per cent of the electorate.

In the last general election the turnout was 72 per cent.

Advance votes last week indicated a slightly lower turnout for tomorrow's snap election.

In last year's balloting, 13 million votes were cast for the three opposition parties: Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon.

The three parties have boycotted the election and their supporters are expected to tick the no-vote box in order to spoil Thaksin's bid.

Though the ruling party received 19 million votes in the last election, its popularity has significantly plunged in recent weeks.

Last week alone, party loyalty dropped almost 12 per cent, according to some opinion surveys.

Critics said it was virtually impossible for the ruling party to retain the same level of support as last year.

Thaksin has to muster more than 16 million votes if he is to triumph and this is no easy feat, they said. Even at the height of his popularity, he received an average 51 per cent from the respective constituencies.

Prinya urged media professionals, members of the public and relevant authorities to closely monitor the balloting, and to speak out if there are suspected cases of rigging.

"If the election is free and fair, Thaksin is unlikely to receive more than half of ballots cast tomorrow," he said.

Thaksin will face many obstacles, he added. In the South, Thai Rak Thai candidates are expected to receive less than 20 per cent of support from eligible voters in at least 17 constituencies.

That would prevent the party from declaring victory and filling the House seats.

The Constitution stipulates that candidates in constituencies where no other parties are running will have to receive at least 20-per-cent backing from eligible voters.

Even if some Thai Rak Thai candidates are able to obtain more than 20 per cent of support in uncontested constituencies, the no-vote could bring serious legitimacy problems for them.

For example, a Thai Rak Thai candidate who wins 25 per cent can be deemed "beaten" if the number of no-votes is more than 25 per cent.

"Legally speaking, the Thai Rak Thai candidate won, but how can he or she be considered a representative of a constituency whose majority has virtually rejected him or her?" said Somchai Srisuthiyakorn.

Thaksin, in asking Thais to vote for or against him, has in effect made the abstention box a vote against his rule.

"In other circumstances, an abstain vote can't affect the legitimacy of the winner. But things will be complicated now because Thaksin has told the public the abstention vote is a vote against him," said one political observer.

"How can a candidate coming from a constituency that has virtually rejected him be allowed to sit in Parliament as its representative? This is a hell of a legitimacy question."

Another question is whether it is constitutional for the House of Representatives to convene to elect the next prime minister if the election cannot produce 500 MPs, as required by the charter.

Speaking on behalf of a group of 256 humanist lecturers, Silapakorn University's Boonsong Chaisingkananont said Thaksin should take a pause from public service pending political reforms.

"Thaksin is politically bankrupt and he will serve in vain," he said.

Sucheera Pinijparakarn,

 Prapasri Osathanon

 The Nation