FACE OFF
Experts divided on post-poll scenarios

One of the legal problems expected to follow the April 2 election is whether a new House of Representatives will be able to convene, or indeed, how it can convene.
Two legal experts debated the issue on Modern 9 TV's "Thung Luk Thung Khon" talk show on Tuesday night. One was Thammasat University rector Suraphol Nitikraipoj, who has called for a royally appointed prime minister to replace Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The other was Thai Rak Thai Party deputy leader Bhokin Bhalakula, a close aide of Thaksin's. Here are their views on the issue: With the boycott of the three former opposition parties, the Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT) was expected to win all 100 party-list seats in the House of 500 MPs, as other small parties would get too few votes to be entitled to a seat. But after TRT party-list candidate Premsak Phiayura resigned and entered the monkhood, the party's line-up has been reduced to 99, and the law does not allow for a replacement to be named. The question is, how can the House launch the opening session, which will pave the way for selecting a new premier, with fewer than the legally required 500 MPs?
Bhokin: The House's four-year term starts on election day, which in this case will be April 2. So, the charter's Section 101 can be used. [The section states that should the number of party-list MPs fall below 100 during the House term, the House will proceed with the existing members.] If only the TRT wins party-list seats, it can get 99 of 100 without Premsak. The party will carry on like that.
Suraphol: The House term starts when 500 winning House candidates launch the opening session. Section 101 of the charter does not apply in this case because it can be applied only after the House sits for the first session. If the number of winning candidates is fewer than 500, even by a single person, the House's term cannot start. The Constitution Court ruled six years ago that the Senate could not hold its first session with only 122 of the required 200 members, because the rest were waiting for the results of by-elections. This is likely to be the same scenario facing the House in the wake of the April 2 election. The House needs 500 sitting members.
On the problem of the 30-day deadline for launching the opening House session: Suraphol: Of 400 constituencies, 271 have only TRT candidates running. So, each of them needs to get at least 20 per cent of the overall vote in his or her constituency, otherwise the result would be annulled and new elections would need to be held until the contest produces a legally qualified winner. The fact is that TRT candidates failed to get 20 per cent of the vote in the 2005 election in 60 of the 271 constituencies. The by-elections, expected to be held several times, need to be completed within 30 days after the April 2 election as required by the law. But it will be very difficult for the by-elections to be held before the deadline as the Election Commission (EC) will also be busy with the April 19 Senate election. There are unlikely to have 400 constituent MPs by the deadline, which would raise the issue of whether the EC has the right to control the by-elections after 30 days. And if not, how will the system run?
Bhokin: The election law is flexible in the case of an unexpected situation that obstructs the democratic system. If the by-elections exceed the 30-day deadline, the law can be applied to solve the problem. Another solution is that if the caretaker government asks for royal approval to launch the opening House session before the deadline, regardless of how many House members are qualified at the time. The law should be interpreted to serve the democratic system.
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