Thaksin Shinawatra has put forth so much falsehood to the public and produced such an incredible amount of deception that he has begun to believe his own lies.

Why do holders of high office so often act contrary to the way reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests? Why do intelligent mental processes seem so often not to function? These were the two main questions posed by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Babara W Tuchman in her book: "The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam".

She offered part of the answer when she wrote:

"Wooden-headedness, the source of self-deception, is a factor that plays a remarkably large role in government. It consists of assessing a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions while ignoring or rejecting any contrary signs. It is acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts. It is epitomised in a historian's statement about Philip II of Spain, the surpassing wooden-head of all sovereigns: 'No experience of the failure of his policy could shake his belief in its essential excellence'."

Thaksin's "wooden-headedness" has brought the country to the current unprecedented crisis. And it's his deepening self-deception that has destroyed all his credibility.

First, he said he would never resign or dissolve Parliament.

Anyone wishing him to do so would have to wait "until my next life". If that wasn't enough to convince his doubters, Thaksin Shinawatra added: "I haven't gone mad yet. I am not going to quit or call a snap election."

Then a few weeks later, he dissolved the House of Representatives and called a snap election for April 2.

He said on television that he was willing to meet with all parties concerned, ready to answer all questions. Moderator Sorayuth Suthassanachinda asked him: "You are ready for a debate on TV?"

He said: "Yes."

"Chamlong [Srimuang] and Sondhi [Limthongkul] with you in the same forum?" Sorayuth asked him.

Thaksin responded: "No, two against one isn't fair. Just pick one."

"One from the People's Alliance for Democracy?"

"Yes."

"And one from the opposition party?"

"Yes."

"So, you are ready for this public forum?"

"Yes, but who's organising this [forum]?"

The following day, he reneged on his words. Thaksin said he would only meet with the PAD leaders and opposition party representatives in a "closed door session - and no telecast either".

A few days later, during his tour of the Northeast just as the protesters had gathered in front of Government House, Thaksin was asked by reporters: "There has been a suggestion that you should take a break from politics as a compromise to break the current political stalemate. What do you think?"

Thaksin went on the record as saying: "It's an interesting idea. I am ready to consider that."

A few hours later, he went before a huge captive audience in the Northeastern city of Nakhon Ratchasima to declare: "No way will I bow to the protesters' pressure. Everything will depend on the election on April 2. If the people cast more than half of the votes for me, I will remain prime minister after that day. That's democracy."

Just as the anti-Thaksin rally was taking place around the Government House, Thaksin declared: "Of course, I am going to work as usual because the Government House is my office."

Then, he went to Buri Ram province to conduct the weekly Cabinet meeting from there through a video-conferencing system.

Lies, half-truths and prevarications are the order of the day. The more he isolates himself by relying on the misguided advice of only a few underlings with their own self-seeking agenda, the more Thaksin detaches himself from reality.

The real guide to understanding his actions these days is to read his lips and stare into his eyes, and not listen to the words that constantly shift between extreme anger and mysterious calm, and jerk from wrath to serenity and vice versa in a matter of hours, if not minutes.

That's why when he keeps saying he won't quit no matter what, he is really saying that he is close to calling it a day. If he says he has done nothing wrong, what he means is that he wants a guarantee that his family's assets won't be frozen when he has no choice but to step down.

And when he says he is ready to "die on duty, here in Thailand," he simply means he is scared to death.

Suthichai Yoon