ANALYSIS
Alliance split on best strategy to oust PM but believes it is more profound and could get even stronger after April 2 poll
The People's Alliance for Democracy is seemingly making its last throw of the dice by asking anyone opposed to the reign of Thaksin Shinawatra to gather for the biggest show of force ever this Saturday. On Tuesday, they gave the embattled leader 48 hours to quit, but the deadline appeared to reflect a creeping sense of desperation as much as growing belligerence.
The alliance knows its time is running out, at least for this round of the battle. The complexion of the war will change completely if the April 2 election is staged and Thaksin emerges with another landslide, albeit a questionable, victory. Saturday's mass gathering will, hopefully, enhance its contentious call for a royally-appointed prime minister and cancellation of the snap election. The government camp believes the alliance's "core" is small and is breaking. Despite the big numbers of protesters joining the daily demonstrations at Government House, government strategists claim that only around 20,000 will hold sway if the campaign drags on a bit further. The leaders of these 20,000, moreover, have been badly split as to what strategy to employ and their biggest problem seems to be lingering disagreement over whether the man they all hate should be replaced by a royally-appointed prime minister. The diversity of the alliance is both an asset and a liability, but the latter's effects are being felt. There are hardcore activists who think a royally-appointed leader is not a democratic way to solve the crisis, especially when Thaksin remains an elected prime minister, albeit a caretaker one. These people want to oust him through pure democratic power, not divine invention. Thaksin realises this and he's holding on by hiding behind a pretext that toppling him through any non-election means would be undemocratic. He hopes to use the results of the April 2 election, expected to be largely in his favour, to ride out the storm. But the creaking PAD is also holding on to the very spirit that brings about the diversity in the first place - the belief that the "Thaksin system" is a false and highly dangerous democracy, which will ruin Thailand if allowed to continue. Key leaders, despite the growing divide, are gambling on their belief that the anti-Thaksin sentiment is something more profound, powerful and permanent and is spreading through other spheres of the Thai public. In other words, they believe that the rally this Saturday will show the PAD's real strength, something not dependent on the charisma of Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang. And they will hope that even if the Saturday rally still cannot break Thaksin's stubborn resistance, the true "PAD spirit" will continue and get even stronger after the April 2 election. Thaksin had underestimated the alliance before, using terms like "stupid mob". With his resignation now used as a barometer of the PAD's future success, it's easy to forget how far the alliance has come. A couple of months ago, House dissolution was described by Thaksin as something that would only happen in everyone's "next life". Now the snap election he declared for April 2 is facing a serious legitimacy problem. And he has even been forced to avoid entering the besieged Government House. Who will be the last man standing? Only one thing is clear: Thaksin can underestimate its strength again at his own peril. Somroutai Sapsomboon,Tulsathit Taptim The Nation
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