Protesters march past Democracy Monument on Tuesday on their way to Government House, where they joined a rally demanding Premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s resignation.

Political analysts, media experts and police have never reached a consensus on the size of the crowds demonstrating against the premier, as objectivity and scientific methodology have taken a back seat to emotions.

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the organiser, inflated the numbers marching from Sanam Luang to Government House on Tuesday morning. Suriyasai Katasila, PAD coordinator, claimed 500,000 people joined the demonstration.

A protester sitting next to Suriyasai at the rally said it was more like 20,000 in attendance while others guessed 200,000.

Different camera angles produced different impressions of the turnout. Only the gullible would believe what they saw on the boob tube.

Sondhi Limthongkul's daily newspaper Phujadkarn - which has acted as the anti-government mouthpiece since the media tycoon kicked off his campaign against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra months ago - this time declined to approximate the number of marchers. It was confident a day earlier that hundreds of thousands would join the rally.

Sondhi, who is a key PAD leader, never bothered with how his editorial staff estimated or even guesstimated the gathering, according to a journalist at the paper who oversees coverage of the march.

"It's crazy to discuss this matter since it's mostly up to your emotions and political bias. The government wants to see a small number while opponents want a huge one," the journalist said.

Police in charge of security for the rally reckoned there were some 60,000 participants.

Independent media sources gave out varying figures. Major political daily newspaper Matichon came up with a massive 200,000. Agence France-Presse and Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported 100,000 protesters while Associated Press was more modest with 60,000 and the BBC saw only 50,000.

The Nation declined to give a single number in its Wednesday edition as some reporters in the field said 50,000 people while others described the turnout at 100,000.

There is, however, a way to calculate the "mob" systematically.

An official at the Public Works and Town Planning Department suggested that the whole stretch of Rajdamnoen Avenue from Na Phra Lan Road in front of the Grand Palace to Sri Ayutthaya Road at the Royal Plaza contained 228,433 square metres. If one square metre holds three people, the avenue could accommodate 685,329.

But in fact, the mass procession on Tuesday morning took up less than half of Rajdamnoen's length and only half of the width, so about a quarter of the area was occupied. That means 171,332 people. But since the people were marching and needed some space, perhaps only two people could fit in one square metre, making the number more like 114,216. Then there were gaps between groups in the procession.

As the protesters arrived at Government House at 9.30am, they took up only a portion of Phitsanulok and Rajdamnoen roads - from the Wang Parussakawan intersection to Makawan Bridge - covering about 60,000 square metres. They were sitting, using a metre each, so a maximum of 60,000 was accommodated. After deducting some space for the stage and speakers, we arrive at a reasonable 50,000.

Political observers tried to amplify the number of marchers in comparison with the incidents on October 14, 1973, which involved an estimated 500,000, and May 1992 when some 200,000 pro-democracy acativists rallied to oust General Suchinda Kraprayoon.

The exaggerated number fashioned from passion and political prejudice is good for the anti-Thaksin camp to show the masses want to eject him from office.

In this case, logical computation should not be taken into account since the number might not satisfy any of the parties in the conflict. 

Supalak Ganjanakhundee

The Nation