Asia in flux as powers find their footing

Coming to terms with history has not been easy for anyone in the Far East. But in spite of some tense moments in the region in recent years, particularly between Japan and China over historical hang-ups, members deem it necessary to stay on course and forge closer ties.
The thinking among the intellectual community and policy makers is that the region needs to realise the collective rise of East Asia. How far they want to go with this drive towards integration, on the other hand, remains to be seen. There is an understanding that the longer the integration takes, the further the region will be left behind as other parts of the world close ranks, pool their resources and strengthen their bargaining power. At the recent Asean-Japan Forum, an ongoing project funded by the Japan Foundation, academics, journalists and policymakers were brought together to brainstorm about possibilities and discuss the challenges ahead for the region. This year's theme examined Japan's relations with Southeast Asia in the context of a rapidly growing China. Dokyo University's Prof Isami Takeda, the chief architect of the four-year-old project, said the overall objective is not focused solely on China, but will evolve to cover other concerns for Japan, including India and transnational issues like the movement of people. "The most important thing for me is how Asean and Japan can work together on policy issues such as China, India, the US and others," Takeda said. But while Japan is looking for its place in a new East Asia, China, on the other hand, has been working hard to dismiss a growing fear that its "peaceful rise" will come at the expense of its neighbours. There is a growing feeling that China will find itself in too comfortable of a position in Southeast Asia and that a balancing power like the United States will be too far outside the loop. Sceptics pointed to China's defence spending, exports, and Beijing's growing assertiveness in the global arena. China's official military spending in 2005 was US$30 billion (Bt1.2 trillion), but the Pentagon said in June that the real figure was $90 billion. Such accusations raise the issue of developing an adequate institutional framework needed to sustain the so-called peace. But whatever framework or mechanism the region is able to come up with, members are going to have to contend with the stand-off in the Korean Peninsula and the tension across the Taiwan Straits. And in spite of interdependence, the level of mistrust between the two major powers continues to grow. China would like to see Japan acknowledge its horrific past, and is concerned that the Japanese will rewrite their constitution to permit the country's military power to match its economic might. Japan, on the other hand, is slowly coming to terms with the fact that China has effectively outflanked them in Southeast Asia. Sadly, Tokyo has discovered that its generosity in the region, particularly among the less-developed countries in Southeast Asia, doesn't go as far as it used to. Along side the bickering in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia also has its own problems. In spite of talks of Asean solidarity, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Individually, members in the southeast continue to hold their cards close to the chest, while relations among neighbours are often tainted by a high degree of suspicion, be it between governments or people. Two years ago, anti-Thai mobs burned down the Thai Embassy in Phnom Penh, as well as Thai-owned businesses throughout the Cambodian capital.The violence started off with an allegation that a Thai celebrity had said that Angkor Wat belongs to Thailand. Diplomatic ties between Thailand and Burma have also experienced a number of low points over recent years because of clashes along the border, as well as allegations of a proxy war in the making. Against the backdrop of this bickering, diplomats and national leaders in the region are working hard to give an impression that the region is as united as ever. There have been talks of institutionalising the forum that brings together Asean and the three Northeast Asian countries, namely China, Japan and South Korea. The concept of an "East Asia community" was discussed and agreed upon, in principle at least, at a leaders' summit in Kuala Lumpur late last year. The extent of debate on the issue of community building and regionalism suggests that rational thinking may prevail in this region, which has yet to show the world that it has turned the page on its recent history. There is an understanding that the process of integration will be long and painstaking. But there is also the understanding that all parties must stay the course. Whether historical resentment and political differences will subside to pave the way for reason remains to be seen. Don Pathan Manila
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