Exactly when or how is debatable. But we need a clear-cut idea about it at the soonest as our country is running out of time. The April 2 election will only heighten uncertainties, and so will more sabotage like the bomb blast in front of Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda's residence last Thursday. In addition, we don't know what the planned march to Government House tomorrow morning by the alliance will lead to. We don't know what elements in the military are thinking. And we don't know if there are vicious elements in the alliance or in the government. All that is clear is that this is a political showdown of the highest stakes, the biggest in modern Thai history. And that the crisis is centred on just one man.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is a suspect in a serious political crime, and the fact that he is much loved and much hated is causing an acrimonious divide of unprecedented scale. He is Thailand's political version of OJ Simpson. One half of the country sees Ample Rich and the dubious trails of Shin Corp shares the same way as the anti-OJ camp saw the blood stains, the footprints, the DNA results and his escape attempts - as solid proof of guilt. Thaksin's defence on the other hand is relying on all kinds of technicality to prove that he has not done anything wrong legally. His supporters are ignoring hard evidence and apparently pinning their hopes on the "glove that doesn't fit".

What difference can an independent inquiry make, as both sides seem to have unchangeable mindsets? To begin with, we have to go back to the root cause of the conflict. There's no way around it. Somehow, a polarised society needs a common resort to hang on to, at least temporarily. Thaksin must clear his name, and in the most transparent and reliable manner. He must counter his opponents with all the evidence that he has, and by himself, not through government agencies that are losing public faith, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Stock Exchange of Thailand, or the Revenue Department. In other words, he has to take the stand to defend the Shin Corp-Temasek deal unequivocally and point by point.

That inquiry must take place in full view of the Thai public. Those conducting it must be highly respected figures accepted by both sides. All points of doubt must be dissected and taken care of one by one. For example, Thaksin must prove his proclaimed motives in setting up Ample Rich while his opponents must be given a chance to show why they don't believe he registered the firm to facilitate Shin Corp's Nasdaq-listing ambition. Once this point is cleared, the inquiry can move on to the next question, and then the next.

This is the only chance to end the suffocating stalemate. But it is obvious that Thaksin doesn't like the idea. He uses the existence of the presently crippled checks and balances as an excuse. He insists he has been cleared, but the reality is that he is looking more guilty by the day. And the prime minister missed the point when he claimed the election could be the judge, that the prelude to the election could be the trial period during which the alliance can tell voters of its evidence against him and the Thai Rak Thai Party can counter the charges. The crisis has come to this point because both sides have been unable, or have refused, to speak at the same place and at the same time. Until Thaksin confronts all charges head-on, they will cling to him forever, and not even another landslide election can change that. But as a potentially disastrous future rolls toward us, the country doesn't have much time left to hesitate, and Thaksin even less so.