Observers predicted it could take six months to a year to kick Thaksin out of politics, as his popularity in rural areas is still buoyant despite a sharp decline in the capital.

Strategically, Thaksin captured more terrain in the landscape of democracy when he dissolved parliament and called a snap election to allow voters to make their own decisions about his fate.

The PAD might dislike Thaksin's smoke and mirrors tactics, but it's easy for the majority to understand such a move.

The anti-Thaksin movement argues that his discourse is unreliable and illegitimate as he has run the administration with his own interests to the fore and manipulated constitutional independent agencies - including the Election Commission - in order to distort the polls and unfairly secure his position.

The PAD's way of addressing the issue was to adopt a Philippines-style democracy, posting "people power" as its weapon to struggle against Thaksin. The term "people power" was employed in the Philippines when a huge movement staged a rally to overthrow Ferdinand E Marcos and install Corazon Aquino at the Presidential Palace in 1986.

However, the terminology also confused the public as media tycoon-cum-political activist Sondhi Limthongkul - one of five decisive PAD members - initially used the term "royal power" as a tool to oust Thaksin when he kick-started the anti-Thaksin campaign months ago.

Some of Sondhi's associates including prominent academic Chianan Samutwanit continued the "royal power" campaign, lodging a petition with His Majesty the King requesting a royal-sponsored prime minister.

The PAD, however, did not endorse the academic movement, but the move gained political momentum from the protest, despite the lack of response from the palace so far.

Some figures in the PAD have still not given up the champion of royal power, although they keep talking about "people power" too - not least to avoid unnecessary conflict with members of other NGOs.

This confusing ideology has ultimately provided the PAD with an unclear political platform and a distinct lack of powerful strategies to achieve its goal to oust Thaksin.

Many key members' comments have been limited to "we want to oust Thaksin first and have no time to discuss other matters".

What the PAD can do now is prolong the protests at Sanam Luang. Though nobody can really say how the shouting, singing, sitting at the royal ground, marching to Democracy Monument and government house and later retreating, can secure the desired effect of forcing Thaksin out of office. And numbers in attendance are beyond the point. No mater how many people attend the rallies, the PAD is unable to transform a rally of hundreds of thousands people into the power to knock Thaksin from his seat.

The PAD has repeatedly made tactical retreats since the big rally at Royal Plaza on February 11. Its artificial deadline for Thaksin to step down has also been reassessed on a number of occasions.

Thaksin is still in office after the huge protests on February 26 and last Sunday, and the PAD has called another rally for Monday and Tuesday, with demonstrators marching to the PM's Office but remaining at a loss of how to proceed when they get there.

Before the next D-Day, the PAD will adopt the guerrilla tactics of dispatching a number of compact protests to the Singapore Embassy, Shin Corp headquarters and the stock market headquarters. The alliance has also proposed that people boycott a number of goods and services linked to Thaksin's affiliates.

The movement is reminiscent of Greenpeace's stance against genetically modified products, which created awareness among consumers. But, there is no indicator so far, of how many people have stopped using AIS mobile phones.

The PAD's Greenpeace style of protest is aimed at putting pressure on Thaksin's affiliates and cronies by blockading his business links. Singapore is being put under pressure due to the business deal, which purchased Shin Corp and its subsequent control over Thailand's national assets such as the media and satellite concessions.

The movement might not put real pressure on the business, but the PAD believes it will stir up public sentiment against Thaksin and his cronies and maintain the anti- Thaksin sentiment until the real D-Day, which is still a long way off.

Supalak Ganjanakhundee

The Nation