All eyes are now focused on April 2, as people bet on whether the snap election will be held or not. But before that, March 14 is another watershed date to watch out for.

On that day, shareholders of Shin Corp, who have expressed a commitment to sell their stocks through a public tender offer, will get their cheques from Cedar Holdings and Aspen Holdings, both subsidiaries of Temasek Holdings of Singapore.

One financial source has said that Temasek received an assurance from Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra that he would see through the public tender for 100 per cent of Shin Corp stocks.

This is probably a key reason why Thaksin has been resorting to all kinds of delaying tactics to hang on to his premiership, albeit in a caretaker role - to make sure that the Shin Corp takeover does not collapse.

Today is the last day of the tender offer for Shin stocks (Bt49.25 a share), which has been going on since March 2. In the tender document, Cedar Holdings and Aspen Holdings have made it clear that they have the right to alter the terms of the tender offer if there are any unexpected events that adversely affect the status or the assets of Shin Corp. The deadline for this clause is 4.30pm, after which Cedar Holdings and Aspen Holdings will not be able to alter the tender-offer terms.

Investors, however, have been quite nervous over the Shin Corp deal, given the shaky status of the caretaker prime minister and the growing anti-Singapore sentiment in Thailand. Activists attached to the People's Alliance for Democracy, campaigning for the unconditional resignation of Thaksin, have already submitted letters to the Singapore Embassy calling for Temasek to pull out of the Shin Corp deal. They have threatened to rally for a boycott of Shin Corp services and other businesses owned by Singaporean firms if Temasek insists on going ahead with the takeover.

Shin Corp stocks have collapsed to Bt44, a far cry from the tender offer price of Bt49.25, reflecting investors' nervousness as to whe-ther the tender offer will succeed.

Sondhi Limthongkul, a key member of the People's Alliance for Democracy, has also set March 14 as the day when anti-PM protesters will march all the way from Sanam Luang to confront the prime minister at Government House. There, he and his coalition partners will submit a letter to the prime minister, applying further pressure on him to resign from politics unconditionally.

Sondhi must have also sensed the critical timing of March 14, when Thaksin no longer has any obligations to Temasek over the Shin Corp tender offer. Yet Sondhi got it slightly wrong when he said that Thaksin had refused to step down from office because his family wanted to wait until it received full payment of Bt73.3 billion from Temasek for the sale of its 49-per-cent stake.

There are two parts of the Shin Corp deal. First, Temasek bought 1.4 billion shares, or 49 per cent, from the Shinawatra and Damapong families for Bt73.3 billion. The transactions of this buyout were conducted on January 23 through six brokers. Full money has been paid out to the Shinawatra and Damapong families, who have deposited the cash at Siam Commercial Bank, Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank, Thai Military Bank and others.

The head of one financial institution said nobody - except the Shinawatra family and Temasek - really knows whether there is any buyback agreement between the Shinawatra family and Temasek in the event of unpredictable events that could pose a significantly adverse threat to the status or assets of Shin. But, the source said, the Shinawatra family would prefer to hold on to the cash and a buyback was virtually unthinkable.

The second part of the Temasek's buyout is a mandatory tender offer for the remaining 51 per cent of Shin from other shareholders. Temasek could have to dish out another US$1.8 billion (Bt70.6 billion) for the remaining shares. This part of the takeover closes today, with payment due to be made on Tuesday (March 14).

If the tender offer ends well by March 14, then Thaksin will no longer have any obligation to remain in office amid mounting pressure for him to resign. He can't weather the political storm ahead without backing off because the country is enduring a political crisis of enormous magnitude with a bitter divide among the populace and various institutions.

The country's three most powerful private sector organisations - the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), the Thai Bankers' Association and the Board of Trade of Thailand - have failed so far to issue a clear joint position about the current political paralysis. Their views will carry significant weight in determining the outcome of the crisis, but they have preferred to take a wait-and-see attitude, not wanting to exacerbate Thaksin's predicament.

Earlier, Board of Trade chairman Pramon Sutheevong said the three private-sector organisations would convene and come up with their joint position on March 14. This is no coincidence because the private sector organisations must also realise the importance of this date.

But yesterday the three private sector organisations had an abrupt change of mind. FTI vice chairman Somphong Tancharoenphol said the three organisations would postpone its meeting on Tuesday due to the uncertain political situation.

There is a possibility that Thaksin will be advised by his team to step down from office by March 14 too, so that the political deadlock is resolved, paving the way for national reconciliation. But whether Thaksin will listen to this advice or not remains to be seen. So far he has proved to be very recalcitrant. And Thai politics now is as unpredictable as ever.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation