Thaksin was at another rousing rally in Chiang Mai, his hometown, yesterday with people mobilised from nearby Northern provinces. He is scheduled to meet Northeastern villagers in Khon Kaen tomorrow. Whether he will show up in the South remains to be seen.

After being so popular with grass-roots voters for more than five years, Thaksin still wants to ensure that their loyalty and support remain unchanged. He continues to defend the Shin Corp stock deal and to deny other allegations of massive corruption and misdeeds in government, saying his critics have self-serving interests causing them to gang up to oust him.

He is determined to plough on amidst growing adversity and a potential crisis for the country. Believing that grass-roots people need him, he intends to pay them back with more populist projects and handouts to please the poor.

The dogged refusal to quit is understandable. Thaksin and his cronies stand to lose a lot, even risk criminal investigations for corruption and other wrongdoings. That's why they have resorted to all ways and means to preserve the power to rule while showing total disregarded for possible unpleasant consequences and even violence.

Parts of the cheering crowd on Friday evening had been seduced by the lure of money, ranging from Bt100 to more than Bt1,000 per head, depending on how far they had to travel. Others were there genuinely out of fondness and adoration for him.

There is a clear distinction between the crowds rallying for Thaksin and the ones supporting the pro-democracy alliance in terms of background, political orientation and awareness. This falls in line with the long-standing belief that rural people traditionally elect the government and urban residents topple it. It's a rule of a kind of class warfare that Thaksin wants to prove wrong.  

The size of the crowd on Friday evening was larger than the previous ones gathering to support the pro-democracy alliance. But Thaksin lacks support from the people at the educated layer of society, starting right from secondary-school level to academics, upstanding citizens and respected public figures.

The Friday demonstration is the kind of venue Thaksin likes instead. It was a one-sided discussion and nobody had a chance to pose serious questions, especially about the Shin Corp deal, corruption scandals or other improprieties, which have corroded public faith in his integrity and credibility.

The decision to dissolve the House was due to his reluctance to respond to pressing questions and a grilling in the planned House sessions, which would have embarrassed him acutely. His evasiveness in terms of coming clean and levelling with the people all along has been the main cause for the groundswell of public discontent.

Who is going to win? To a certain extent, Thaksin has been re-energised by grass-roots level support, which could put him even farther out of touch with reality. In a sense, the huge rally was an act of make-believe, pushing him to maintain his defiant stance and resist pressure towards a workable solution that would deflect the trend towards political confrontation and a possible violent flashpoint.

What's more, Thaksin's attempt to explain the complexity of the Shin Corp stock deals involving dummy offshore firms was something beyond his audience's complete understanding. Vague and dubious statements were enough to confuse people who don't want to admit that they truly have no comprehension about the case in point.

Thaksin's sense of survival works overtime now that the respected figures who supported him earlier have all abandoned him. How he intends to continue his leadership with respectability and public faith remains in doubt. The possibility of Thailand having a lame-duck administration has become more real.

But nobody can expect Thaksin to show a bit of concern at this point, even as educated, urban people call out for him to sacrifice his position for the sake of the country's stability.

The crowd expected today at the pro-democracy rally at Sanam Luang will give an indication whether there will be enough momentum to pressure Thaksin to realise fully that his refusal to step down will usher the country into a period of uncertainty and grave risks.

Sopon Ongkara