Thirayuth urged the anti-Thaksin movement to be patient as they seek to destroy Thaksin's legitimacy and not try to create artificial deadlines that could not be met because his resignation might not happen soon.

More and more people will join the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) because they are disillusioned with Thaksin's leadership as he has failed on almost every policy he created, he said.

Even his legitimate flagship policy of Bt30 universal health-care is falling apart at major

hospitals, with Thammasat University Hospital being the latest to pull out from the programme.

"People in the business community too, from the reaction I've seen, have reached the conclusion that Thaksin is a failed CEO because his attitude and management style to 'gain all and lose nothing' is too selfish," Thirayuth said.

"And look at the result. Thaksin's greed in collecting every coin from selling the Shin Corp stocks by avoiding taxes has landed him in deep trouble today."

Thirayuth said there was no way Thaksin could avoid political demise because he is being attacked by three major social forces - the customary forces such as patriotism and social ethics; democratic forces with a long history of people power; and the modern business sector that values good governance.

"By next month, if the PAD persists along its path, there will be a more well-educated urban middle class from the business sector joining their movement," he predicted. "The PAD should not rush to secure a victory. Its expose of Thaksin is a fantastic educational process to build up a strong and broad-based people's power [movement] to keep politics under the checks and balances system."

Thirayuth said he disagreed with the application of Article 7 of the Constitution for royal intervention.

"The situation is not that ripe yet, why rush to make such a request? We should let things evolve along their own path," he said.

Thirayuth, a Thammasat University sociologist, said Thaksin and the opposition both claimed to be fighting for democracy. But Thaksin's democracy is merely in the form of an election, while his opponents have developed their understanding to a point beyond representation to encompass ethical and deliberative participatory politics with checks and balances.

He urged Thais to participate in the April 2 election in accordance with the Constitution, but suggested they should tick the "no vote" box to show the premier he cannot whitewash himself with this poll.

Thirayuth said people should not believe the pledge Thaksin made on Friday that he would not become prime minister if his party received fewer votes than the number of abstentions combined with votes for smaller parties.

"That's another of Thaksin's sugar-coated promises because he knows that's not going to happen," he said. "I give him two weeks to prove he can meet another simpler pledge he made that he would no longer use provocative language to insult anyone."

The sociologist said Thaksin's struggle to survive public attacks was dragging the country's major institutions down the drain with him. The credibility of the Constitution Court, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Revenue Department and the Election Commission has been ruined because of Thaksin.

Thirayuth predicted Thaksin might be able to temporarily survive this political crisis, from several months to a year, as he is fighting back with money and political might. But the more he struggles in desperation, the more poorly planned his strategies will be.

"Now it takes people no more than three days to see through his survival game," said the sociologist. "Yesterday's [Friday's] rally [to show support to Thaksin] did not surprise me at all. It was so fake. Nobody could be fooled [that those people showed up without heavy mobilisation]."

Inset: Respected professor Thongchai Winichakul of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, yesterday made four suggestions on how Thai society could get out of the present political stand-off:

l Thaksin should resign as caretaker premier and the government appoint a caretaker deputy prime minister, or an MP who is generally accepted by every party, or the only MP from the Mahachon Party, to replace Thaksin.

l The PAD should give up its "deadline" for Thaksin to resign and instead campaign for the electorate to vote for no one.

l If the Thai Rak Thai Party manages to form a government after the election, the struggle against Thaksin should continue through every possible means, such as the courts and the parliamentary process.

l There is no need to use any "extra" power to solve a problem we created by ourselves.

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

The Nation