Premier should look to Philippines

For as long as Thaksin Shinawatra clings to power, politics will be increasingly fractious, and the country will move closer and closer to the brink of chaos.
A glimpse into the future may reveal daily street protests demanding Thaksin's ousting, causing continual disruption to peace and stability. For a glimpse of what might occur, Thailand need look no further than the Philippines, where opposition rallies dominate the political landscape incessantly. Thai citizens will have to brace for the inconveniences that inevitably stem from daily protests, and Thaksin might want to consult Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo on how to run a tight ship amid such a political storm. In declaring his re-election bid for the April 2 snap election, Thaksin may have wanted to emulate the one-party control of parliament as perfected by former prime minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore. Due to the opposition boycott, the Thai Rak Thai Party is poised to win every House seat. To prevent its victory from becoming "too hollow", the ruling party may contemplate propping up a few candidates from small parties as token opposition members. It is anticipated, however, that Thaksin will serve his third term under persistent turbulence like that facing Arroyo even though he would be as powerful as Lee used to be. Based on his record of securing a second term in such solid fashion, Thaksin has revealed his obsession with power. He tampered with democratic rules to consolidate power. He negatively influenced independent organisations, rendering the system of checks and balances ineffective. He stifled the voice of the minority, intimidated the media and dispensed favours based on cronyism. As prime minister, he engineered the tax-free sale of Shin Corp to enrich his family by Bt73.3 billion. The deal was a brilliant piece of business execution but backfired to expose shameful ethical standards for a government leader. More and more people want his resignation, saying he lacks legitimacy to be prime minister. The anti-Thaksin campaign is growing by leaps and bounds. After three mass rallies in Bangkok, Thaksin was forced to dissolve the House. The protests did not stop but appear to have moved to the next level to mobilise whatever it takes and for as long as it needs to dethrone him. Anti-Thaksin sentiment is emerging like the "people power" revolt against Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986. Many political pundits view Thaksin as a civilian dictator. In a political analogy, Marcos was elected and assumed complete control of state mechanisms to enrich his family before he was defeated by "people power". Possibly heeding the Marcos lesson, Thaksin churned out diversionary measures designed to pacify his opponents, although none seemed to work. Should he try to regain his popularity via pro-government rallies, he may be disappointed. "People power", it should be remembered, also overthrew popular Philippine president Joseph Estrada in 2001. "People power" is a potent answer to any leader perceived as lacking legitimacy to govern. Loud protests will likely keep on haunting embattled Thaksin into his third term and beyond if he refuses to step down. Regardless of how many charter amendments he may sponsor, the political turmoil will persist if he continues to skirt the question of his legitimacy. At this juncture, it is clear Thaksin will fight to the bitter end to cling to power. He has demonstrated his determination to lead the next government and face any turbulence blown his way. But the bottom line is whether society should allow him to drag it through a protracted ordeal of political uncertainty.
|