Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is still alive politically, at least for now. Amid crises storming in at him from all directions, he is making a desperate struggle to regain his position, which has been on the brink of collapse for weeks.

Defiant to all calls for his resignation, Thaksin has made a swift tactical change to fight back although, a long, difficult road stretches ahead of him before he can be confident he has really survived the storm.

When he led his 100 Thai Rak Thai party-list candidates to apply at the Election Commission for the April 2 election yesterday, he completed the first hurdle after widespread rumours about a possible military coup during the last few days.

Thaksin will hold a mass rally at Sanam Luang today in front of supporters expected to number in the hundreds of thousands.

This way, he can attack his opponents - including the Democrat Party, the People's Alli-ance for Democracy (PAD) and academics - for their "groundless" allegations against his family and the Thai Rak Thai Party.

He will show his sincerity by promising to pave the way for a "neutral" panel to host the constitutional amendments.

Meanwhile, he would convince his supporters that the three main opposition parties - particularly the Democrats - rejected his "democratic spirit" when they boycotted the April 2 election with a claim that his administration has ruined democracy.

Thaksin will claim the turnout at his rally undermines the legitimacy of the PAD mass rally on Sunday, while attempting to discredit the group by saying its call for his resignation goes against the majority of voters who want him to stay in power.

However, Thaksin will have to pray that the Sunday rally will not end in bloodshed as the alliance is reported to be planning to move on to Government House and Thaksin's residence to pressure him to step down.

The confrontation could lead to violence, which, as Thailand's modern political history shows, would force the prime minister to accept responsibility and quit.

If Thaksin can pass this critical point, he could then have "green lights" all the way.

When he leads 400 TRT constituent candidates to apply to the EC tomorrow, he will hope they have at least one contender from other parties in every constituency.

Otherwise, a TRT candidate without a contender will need to win at least 20 per cent of all eligible votes in the constituency as the election law requires. Fewer votes will lead to a new election round until the winning candidate meets the requirement.

Although the problem is expected in some southern constituencies in the Democrat stronghold, Thaksin's ally, the Prachakorn Thai Party, under controversial former Bangkok governor Samak Sundaravej, said it would "volunteer" to help TRT by sending candidates to run in every constituency.

If the April 2 poll takes place, Thaksin will be hoping the EC will approve all 500 winning contenders - 400 in constituencies and 100 on the party-list - in 30 days to pave the way for the first House session.

At this point, with the Democrats, Chat Thai and Mahachon boycotting the poll, TRT should have no problem as it seems unlikely the other parties would dare to file complaints alleging election fraud.

With TRT expected to win all 500 seats, the House can then launch an opening session to select the prime minister.

Thaksin then will be hoping the movement against his return will wither and he can assume power and complete a third term.

He would also hope that the public's suspicions over his alleged abuse of power to benefit his family-business empire, which led to the Bt73.3-billion sell-off of Shin Corp in late January, would be forgotten.

Next in the comeback could be to drag out the constitutional amendments until it is certain that he has regained complete power and his TRT is happy with all the changes in the charter.

At this step, Thaksin could dissolve the House to make the amended charter effective, leading to a new round of elections. By this time, his position would be so strong that the three opposition rivals would find it hard to challenge his leadership again.

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation