Anuch was reacting to the rumour of a coup yesterday. He said the Association of Southeast Asian Nations may not recognise such a government.

He said Thailand's "Doomsday Clock" was ticking and a non-violent solution to the current

political impasse was urgently needed.

"All parties must help to avoid facing a political dead-end," he said, adding that even if Thaksin resigns the system of running the country would not change and mega-projects could still proceed.

But even without the sale of Shin Corp to Singapore, Thaksin would still be facing other troubles. "It's a conflict between elites," said Anuch of the current anti-government demonstration.

"It's alright to have conflict but let's not allow it to lead to death and bloodshed," said Anuch, who is head of the Thailand Trends Monitoring Project.

At a conference yesterday, Anuch said the trend for takeovers of Thai businesses by big foreign capital would continue. But when asked by The Nation what he thought personally, Anuch declined to comment.

He also predicted that the US-Thai Free Trade Agreement (FTA) would continue to face considerable opposition as long as the issues of intellectual property rights, such as for anti-viral medicine for HIV-positive people, are not addressed.

Another issue of concern is local finance firms' fear of being overwhelmed by bigger players as a result of the FTA with the US.

"The FTA won't succeed any time soon, nor will it succeed easily," he said of the ongoing negotiations.

Another trend for Thai society is whether rural people will become more business-minded or not.

"Capitalism has deeply penetrated Thai society and is changing people's way of thinking," he said, adding that the attitude of success and winning at all cost is replacing that of compromise, and may be evident in the current political impasse where each side refuses to budge.

"It will lead to greater political confrontation," he warned.

Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation