Thai industrialists are showing a mixed attitude towards the country’s continuing political strife. While 44.2 per cent of those surveyed by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) do not see any negative impacts from the con-flict, 49 per cent fear the turmoil will disrupt business.

Among those in the second camp is Boonsithi Chok-watana, chairman of Saha Group, the country’s largest trading and manufacturing conglomerate. He said that any political change now could shatter Thailand’s economic opportunities, because foreign investment might be diverted to prominent competitors like Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia.

“Give us a year,” he pleaded. “Now is a golden opportunity to expand Thailand’s economic size, due mainly to the recovery in Japan and China’s fast economic growth. Any change now would come at a very wrong time.”

Boonsithi said Japan’s eco-nomic recovery would encourage the channelling of new and bigger Japanese investment to Thailand and China’s growth promised a large market for Thai products. Already, 30 per cent of Thai exports go to China and Asean.

The economy is in extremely good health, he said, and this is reflected in low unemployment, resulting in labour shortages at factories, including those of his Saha Group.

He is confident that Saha Group’s revenue will see at least 15-per-cent growth this year, up from last year’s level of between 13 per cent and 14 per cent, when the group recorded an aggregate revenue of Bt100 billion.

Boonsithi’s comments came two days before Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is due to meet business leaders on Friday. It is believed Thaksin will speak on economic policies, aiming to raise the confidence of business leaders amid growing public pressure to oust him.

The meeting will also occur two days before the next anti-Thaksin rally at Sanam Luang on Sunday.

Thaksin said yesterday that he would focus on the higher cost of living, especially among low-income earners, indicating a possible hike in the minimum wage.

However, FTI vice chairman Santi Vilassakdanont said any such move could encourage foreigners to delay investment in Thailand.

“The government should opt for special activities to offer low-priced goods to low-income earners,” he said. “Right now, business operators are suffering from huge increases in costs, incurred from oil prices, transportation costs, and more pricey raw materials.”

In line with a Bank of Thailand survey, the Thai Industries Sentiment Index rose from 100.4 points in December to 103.4 points in January. Most sub-indexes were above 100 points, showing substantial business confidence. The only sub-index that fell in January was that relating to operating costs. It slumped from 68.5 to 63.3, reflecting business operators’ fears of higher costs from raw materials, interest rates and oil prices.

Aside from this concern, most industrialists fear that if political conflict continues for longer than three months, investor confidence could be affected, Santi said. Short-term impacts will mostly be seen in the financial markets.

“Foreign investors who have never done business in Thailand are asking their friends in Thailand about the current situation, as their only information comes from the Thai press,” he said.

Transport Minister Pongsak Ruktapongpisal said yesterday that British Ambassador David William Fall has informed him that UK investors were still interested in investing in mass-transit, high-speed train and port development in Thailand.

“He didn’t ask about the political situation,” he said.

Pongsak was adamant that the government would proceed with mega-project investment. He said the delayed delivery of mass-transit terms of reference to potential bidders was merely a technical error.

Business Reporters

The Nation