He knows now that the crisis and threat to his premiership are real and pretty scary. If his downfall eventually materialises, it is hard to imagine what the consequences would be. The thought of a sudden loss of power surely makes the chills run up his spine.

Despite the crisis, Thaksin is still sporting a brave face. But his degree of bravado has subsided below the normal level. The sob story – narrated in an earnest and hushed tone – was designed specifically for grass-roots supporters, telling them he was prey to foul play by those who had lost vested interests and were jointly out to get him.

Throughout this whining, it was still the same old Thaksin – the man who could no wrong. It has never occurred to him, judging from his beseeching tone and the sob-story line, why tens of thousands of people were at rallies in the heart of the city to denounce him.

The once highly popular Thaksin, whose charm in playing the role of benevolent national leader commanded grass-roots support, has become a pariah and a target for ouster through widespread public outrage among urban people following five years of massive corruption, cronyism and arrogance of power.

Of course, there is still a lot left in his political bag of tricks. Stalling and biding for time have become the new strategy. The latest gimmick was his inclination to agree to a demand for constitutional amendments.

Since a referendum or public hearing cannot be done at the same time as the upcoming Senate elections, Thaksin came up with a new game plan. He summoned university rectors from across the country to Government House and, after a long preaching session, asked them to conduct research into which areas of the charter needed amendment. A tidy budget was readily provided to top up his plea for their support. Public opinion polls show the PM’s popularity rating at an all-time low due to unrelenting negative publicity, which has ruined his credibility and image. This is because he has not been able to clear up the murky Shin Corp deal with Temasek Holdings of Singapore, which is now an explosive scandal and a political liability.

Thaksin has of late suffered various body blows, which have caused severe damage to his character and leadership credibility. The Shin Corp deal has the potential of cutting short his term if he cannot clear up the mess.

The decision of the Constitution Court not to accept a petition by 28 senators to investigate Thaksin for alleged business dealings while in office has aggravated his personal crisis.

Come February 26, the big day for a huge rally at Sanam Luang, Thaksin should feel threatened, with his stability seriously in doubt. Even if he can ride out the storm, it is more likely that he will be around as just a lame-duck CEO, unable to command respect and faith from educated and urban people.

Public outrage has yet to hit its peak. Between now and next Sunday, the alliance against Thaksin will strengthen its campaign nationwide to convince the embattled CEO that his desire to complete a second term could be just wishful thinking. Forget the third term he discussed with news agency Agence France-Presse.

The protest rally on that day could be massive and fateful enough for Thaksin to realise that he stands to face an even larger groundswell of public discontent if he struggles to cling to his leadership. There are people, however, who understand his predicament and the dangerous choices he has to make.

The scenarios are like this. If he chooses to step down due to pressure and the realisation that he cannot go on – as in the case of ex-president Suharto of Indonesia – he still runs a high risk of criminal investigation and possibly confiscation of his assets.

If he hangs on and is determined to fight his opponents to the end, he could eventually follow the footsteps of ex-president Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines, and the ending would be very unpleasant. The question of asset-seizure is even more terrifying.

If he decides to leave the country, there aren’t many places where there is complete protection for him against criminal investigation and other demands for payback, as his adversaries would undoubtedly seek to settle scores with him.

There are other dreadful scenarios. A panel like the Committee on Good Government in the Philippines might be formed to go after his hidden wealth, stashed both locally and abroad.

Finally, he could be summoned or whisked off to become an unwilling visitor to the International Criminal Court in The Hague to give a full account of the extra-judicial killings of the past few years, and stand in the same league as the ex-tyrant of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic.

There may be other options, such as a dissolution of Parliament and a snap election.

If he is still around, all these hair-raising scenarios are undoubtedly feasible. And there may even be others we don’t know about.

 Sopon Onkgara