Last week, busload after busload of well-wishers, red roses in hand, were shuffled in and out of Government House to declare their undying support for the prime minister. Upcountry, the Thai Rak Thai Party’s political-propaganda machine shifted into high gear, mobilising tens of thousands of people to rally in support of Thaksin.

Thaksin gave every appearance of relishing this cheerleading frenzy that was meant to counter the rising tide of discontent among the middle class in Bangkok and the major provinces that has already spiralled into a popular movement seeking his ouster.

Without a doubt, Thaksin is facing the biggest threat to his political leadership. But it’s still premature for his political obituary. Even his critics are amazed by the level of support he is getting from broad sectors of society. Even though some of the cheerleading was blatantly orchestrated by the prime minister’s political team, the outpouring of pro-Thaksin emotion among those who have benefited from his government’s populist policies is genuine.

Nobody expects Thaksin to throw in the towel anytime soon. He is politically well entrenched, with complete command over both the House of Representatives and the Senate. With his family possessing one of the biggest cash reserves in the country after the sale of their Shin Corp shares, his political war chest is unrivalled.

Opposition to his administration, while becoming more widespread, remains fragmented. His opponents are united in their goal to see him ousted but differ on the means.

Ironically, Sondhi Limthongkul of the Manager Group has been both an asset and a liability for the anti-Thaksin movement. While he was single-handedly responsible for galvanising the various anti-Thaksin groups, he was also faulted for his political brinkmanship, which alienated many would-be allies.

But now that Sondhi has agreed to withdraw into the background and allow a broad-based alliance to take the helm, the anti-Thaksin movement is likely to gain more momentum and even broader popular support.

And the newly reinvigorated alliance is setting the stage for a prolonged clash with Thaksin. The sudden revival of student activism and the spontaneous demonstrations against the prime minister that popped up around the Kingdom on Saturday only confirm that discontent with his rule has become more widespread than he wants to admit.

Clinging to what he likes to refer to as the “19 million votes” that swept him back into power a year ago, Thaksin has consistently dismissed any grievance against him as a political conspiracy engineered by the Democrat Party and those with a personal agenda against him.

Thaksin not only remains in a state of denial, but also is deliberately playing a dangerous game that threatens to drive a wedge between those for and against him. In his addresses to supporters being paraded through the Government House and in his weekly radio talks, Thaksin has increasingly used “us and them” rhetoric as part of his grandstanding.

The disparaging language he uses against his opponents has evidently had a polarising effect. He labels everyone clamouring for his resignation “fools” and “hooligans”. Critics who question him about alleged irregularities in his family’s sale of the Shin shares are dismissed as being “jealous”.

In one outburst in front of hundreds of admirers herded into Government House last week, Thaksin declared he would never give in to the “forces of evil” that were conspiring to overthrow him.

Thaksin’s disparaging of his opponents is no slip of the tongue – nor was his controversial remark that he would willingly step down the moment His Majesty the King “whispered” the word to him. It obviously belied his attempts at a semblance of propriety when he was in a cooler mood.

In last Saturday’s weekly radio address, he pleaded with his opponents to adhere to “Thai ways” in airing their grievances. But accusing critics of being fools or hooligans is certainly not the Thai way of treating one’s own countrymen.

But the real danger is that through his rhetoric, Thaksin is deliberately sowing the seeds of discord among the people. And state-controlled media that faithfully echo each of his remarks against his critics are only widening the rift.

Thaksin is obviously trying to use political polarisation as a weapon to prolong his power. But the cost to social unity may turn out to be too high.

From being the country’s most popular prime minister, Thaksin is heading towards becoming its most divisive leader.

Thepchai Yong