Published on June 27, 2005

Whatever momentum was gained from the international calls to free Aung San Suu Kyi and to allow for democracy in Burma on the occasion of the opposition leader’s recent 60th birthday must be sustained at all costs.

The outpouring of support from presidents, prime ministers, intellectuals, Nobel laureates and activists demonstrated one simple truth – the Lady matters.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, perpetuated by junta apologists and other vested interests in the past five years, that the long-suffering opposition leader of National League of Democracy has been the main stumbling block of progress because of her attitude towards political processes and national reconciliation, Suu Kyi is in fact loved and respected by the Burmese and other people around the world.

Given this, it would not be surprising that in coming days, if not weeks, the pressure on Rangoon will continue to grow. Leading this effort will be lawmakers in the United States, European Union and core Asean countries.

American politicians such as Senator Mitch McConnell and Senator Richard Lugar have already made clear that they want to maintain the sanctions that have been imposed on Burma. Over the years, they have called on China, Thailand and the members of Asean to do their part as to ensure that the political situation inside Burma improves. So far, these calls have largely fallen on deaf ears in this corner of the world.

This approach has been the target of much criticism from people who say sanctions will hurt the Burmese people more than the junta leaders. This would only weaken them when what they need is humanitarian aid. Medicine and healthcare facilities have been given to Burma. It is not clear whether the people who need them have access to them.

Since 1988, the Burmese people have had sanctions imposed on all aspects of their lives by the military junta, which is far insidious than anything the international community could do. These days, more selective sanctions must be contemplated, focusing particularly on business and industrial transactions that generate huge foreign exchange. The junta has dangled energy concessions in front of foreign oil companies, persuading them to invest and even to call for the end of sanctions.

What is interesting is the effect the mounting pressure from US lawmakers has had on the Bush administration, especially on US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who has yet to visit the region officially. Laos will host an Asean ministerial meeting later next month, which Rice, as the new secretary of state, is expected to attend. She is also supposed to attend the back-to-back post-ministerial and Asean Regional Forum meetings.

However, the worsening political situation in Burma has created a certain ambivalence, if not anxiety, within the top echelons in Washington over whether Rice should go ahead with the July trip. They fear that her presence would send the signal that the US is willing to tolerate dictatorships, and not just to Asean and Burma, but also to the international community.

US Ambassador Gerald Scott, senior advisor with the US mission at the UN, has expressed serious concern about the fact that the situation in Burma continues to decline. He raised this issue at the closed door meeting called to discuss Aghanistan and Iraq las week eventhough Burma was officially not on the UN Security Council agenda. Both China and Russia vetoed the inclusion of Burma.

In the past few days, there was a flurry of diplomatic activity in Bangkok when the US Embassy was told to prepare for a special unscheduled half-day stopover in Bangkok by Rice, possibly on July 10. Sevreal core Asean foreign ministers from Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines have been invited to Bangkok to meet with her to discuss issues relating to the region, including Burma.

If the trip materialises, it is likely to reinforce the importance of sustaining US and international sanctions against Burma, depending on how much Rice emphasises this topic. It will also impress on Asean that it must exert more “peer pressure” on its member. Asean members should take some comfort in the fact that it is better for them to isolate or reprimand Burma than to allow outsiders to do so.

In fact, Asean parliamentarians have since November already paved the way for their respective foreign ministers to do just this. They have jointly called for on the grouping to bar Burma becoming the chair of Asean and hosting next year’s foreign ministerial meeting. As of now, all indications have suggested that this campaign will succeed, though it remains to be seen how Burma will react.

Some quarters within Asean are extremely concerned that if Burma is passed over next year, it will be a blessing in disguise to the junta leaders. How will Asean respond if Burma expresses a desire to host the 2007 Asean annual meeting?

By that time the junta leaders will have completed their phoney charter and held a national referendum that will enable them to form a so-called democratic government. While Burma cannot fool the people and countries in the region, a semblance of democracy could go a long way in other parts of the world and score some the generals some important points.

The campaign to pressure Burma will be strengthened if Britain, which takes up the EU presidency next week, can narrow the focus of key EU members, otherwise, the situation is unlikely to change too much.

Thailand has already lost any chance of being an honest broker because of its perceived closeness with Burma. Since the departure of former Burmese prime minister Khin Nyunt, Thailand has had a harder time than most officials would like to admit in establishing a channel of communications with the new group in Rangoon. Ironically, it is now much easier for Thailand to shift it policy towards Burma and align itself with the international coalition.

Only by sustaining this convergence of forces will the international community affect the world’s most infamous pariah state.

Kavi Chongkittavorn

The Nation

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