Published on January 31, 2005

With less than a week until voting day, the latest Nation Group general election analysis sees the Thai Rak Thai Party adding 12 constituency seats to its previous projected tally of 254, far ahead of its rival parties, which are predicted to win less than 100 seats each.

If the election were held today, according to the Nation Group’s seventh weekly electoral assessment as of January 28, Thai Rak Thai would win 266 of the 400 constituency seats, the Democrats would win 83, Chat Thai 35, and Mahachon 16.

The sixth assessment saw the Democrats winning 85, Chat Thai 39, Mahachon 21 and New Aspiration 1.

Thai Rak Thai would still win the majority of Bangkok constituencies, 26 of 37. However, this is two less than the 28 seats it won in Bangkok in 2001.

The Democrats are expected to win the 11 remaining seats. Chat Thai, which was earlier on course to win its first seat in the capital since 1986, appears to have suffered a reversal in the Don Muang constituency, where its candidate, former TV host Janista Liewchalermwong, is now trailing Thai Rak Thai candidate Karun Hosakul.

Nation Group reporters and political academics across the country have analysed election sentiment in each constituency since mid-December, taking into account local attitudes, candidates’ backgrounds and their voter bases, as well as each party’s own election forecasts.

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